Guwahati: Guwahati city of Assam on Friday, July 24, registered "only" 219 COVID-19 cases on Thursday, July 24. Could this be a cause for relief or a is it simply a lull before the proverbial storm?
While it might seem like a large number of cases by itself, it actually seems moderate in comparison to the number of cases that have been detected ever since the virus exploded in the urban agglomeration. In fact, in view of the increased "tolerance" for the virus due to the massive surge in the number of cases, it might, in fact, seem "reasonable".
Yes, although the number might seem high when compared to the single-digit cases that were reported in the initial days of the outbreak, it is still a far cry compared to the tallies being registered over the last few days.
A day earlier, the number of cases in the urban agglomeration had dipped below the 400-case mark -- could it be interpreted as another sign that the pesky virus is on its way out?
Yesterday, 1,047 cases were discovered across Assam after 19,000 samples were tested for traces of the contagion. The positivity rate was 5.25%. However, compare this number to the 1,349 COVID-19 patients were discharged from Assam hospitals after recovering from the viral disease, and it might be seen as another positive sign.
Although these developments may bode well for the future of the state in regards to its fight against the virus, the Government says "not so fast."
Assam finance and health minister Himanta Biswa Sarma recently predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the state, and especially in Guwahati, is poised to rise at a dramatic rate in the month of August when the virus will be at its "peak".
Terming the COVID-19 trend in Assam as an "elastic situation" in a televised interview, Sarma predicted that the number of cases in Guwahati shall rise by 750-1,000 from August 1 onwards. "Since they (the patients) will have to be in COVID Care Centre for 10 days, we will have to be ready with 7,500 to 10,000 slots to accommodate these people in hospitals, COVID Care Centres, Nursing Homes, Home Quarantine, etc", Sarma said.
Sarma said that another projection will be made on August 15. "Again, on September 1, we will have to make another projection and it will be one of the last", Sarma said. He further opined that the virus curve will start to flatten after September 15.
This is in line with the Centre's prediction – the Central Government has projected that the COVID-19 case tally will reach 65,000 by the end of next month – with half of the cases to be registered in Guwahati alone.
For that to happen, the number of cases will have to rise exponentially and dramatically.