New Delhi: India Ratings and Research have revised its FY21 gross domestic product (GDP) growth for India down to 3.6% from 5.5%.
The key reasons for this downgrade are the spread of COVID-19 and the resultant nation-wide lockdown imposed till 14 April 2020, crippling most economic and commercial activities.
The revision is based on the assumption of lockdown continuing till end-April 2020 (full or partial) and gradual restoration of economic activities May 2020 onwards.
In view of the lockdown, India Ratings and Research has even revised the FY20 GDP forecast downward to 4.7% (9MFY20: 5.1%) from The National Statistical Office’s advance estimate of 5.0%.
The rating agency expects the GDP growth to come in at 3.6% in 4QFY20 and 2.3% in 1QFY21. Average growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.8% in 1HFY21 (1HFY20: 5.3%) and recover to 4.3% in 2HFY21 (2HFY20: 4.2%), due to a) the base effect and b) a gradual recovery and restoration of supply chain, it said. (IANS)
and the ability and nimbleness of the Indian businesses to take advantage of this opportunity. However, converting this advantage to an opportunity would not easy, because the Indian economy is reeling under low consumption and low investment growth, coupled with rupture in the financial system, the report said.
India Ratings and Research expect the government to announce more measures in the coming days/weeks to mitigate the pains and concerns of the other segments/sectors of the society/economy, since the role of the government is crucial in terms of containing the spread of COVID-19 and simultaneously mitigating the adverse impact of the lockdown on the economy. (IANS)
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