Dipak Kurmi
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
The recent drop in the Brahmaputra’s water level, resulting in the suspension of the vital ferry service between Jorhat and Majuli, raises serious concerns about the future of Assam’s most critical waterway. As the river that sustains the region’s ecosystem and economy, any fluctuations in the Brahmaputra’s water system, particularly during the lean winter months, deserve the immediate attention of both policymakers and the scientific community. This isn’t merely an isolated occurrence—there’s growing evidence to suggest a combination of environmental and geopolitical factors may be at play, contributing to the potential crisis facing the Brahmaputra and the broader riverine landscape of Assam.
Seasonal variability or anomaly? The Case for Serious Scrutiny
It is well established that the Brahmaputra’s flow decreases during winter. However, the unprecedented scale of reduction in recent years has raised legitimate concerns among local communities, experts, and government officials. A particularly troubling pattern of dwindling water levels during the lean season has been observed, sparking debates about the underlying causes. While a certain degree of reduction is expected due to natural seasonality, the abnormal scale of receding water volumes suggests that other factors might be altering the Brahmaputra’s hydrology.
One key suspect behind these changes lies beyond India’s borders: In the upper reaches of the river, China has been engaged in large-scale dam construction on the Yarlung Tsangpo (as the Brahmaputra is known in Tibet). The massive damming efforts undertaken by China could potentially have far-reaching implications for the river’s natural flow, especially in Assam and the lower riparian regions. These developments, coupled with the accelerating impacts of climate change, make the Brahmaputra’s future uncertain.
China’s Damming and Diversion: A Brewing Geopolitical Tension
China’s dam-building activities on the Yarlung Tsangpo have long been a matter of contention between Beijing and New Delhi. There are well-documented instances of China’s efforts to harness the power of the Brahmaputra’s upper stretches for hydroelectricity and irrigation. These initiatives, while economically beneficial for China, could spell disaster for downstream countries like India and Bangladesh, which rely heavily on the river’s uninterrupted flow. The Chinese government’s lack of transparency concerning the scale and nature of these projects only adds to the concerns, as does its history of ignoring international water-sharing norms.
International treaties and protocols mandate cooperation between countries that share transboundary rivers. Yet China has a track record of resisting adherence to such conventions. The Centre, as the representative of India’s geopolitical interests, has so far been hesitant to take a firm stance against China’s unilateral river management practices. With mounting evidence of the impacts on water flow, New Delhi faces increasing pressure to engage diplomatically, urging China to honour established water-sharing agreements and protocols. This is essential not only for India’s water security but also for the preservation of the Brahmaputra Valley’s socio-economic fabric.
The Climate Dimension: Glacier Melt and Rainfall Volatility
The climate crisis is an undeniable force contributing to the Brahmaputra’s altered hydrology. Glacial retreat in the Himalayas has accelerated in recent years, driven by rising global temperatures. Since the Siang (Yarlung Tsangpo) accounts for a significant share of the Brahmaputra’s total water volume, especially during winter, any reduction in glacier-fed contributions could have a cascading effect on the river’s flow downstream.
Moreover, the changing climate is affecting rainfall patterns across the region. Unpredictable monsoons, extreme weather events, and extended droughts have become more frequent, impacting not just the Brahmaputra but the entire ecosystem it supports. If the Brahmaputra transitions from a perennial to a predominantly rain-fed river, the consequences for agriculture, fisheries, and hydropower in Assam could be devastating.
According to a study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the Himalayas, which supply a significant portion of water to the Brahmaputra, are warming at a rate faster than the global average. A report by NASA’s Earth Science Division corroborates that the Himalayan glaciers have lost nearly a third of their ice mass in recent decades. This loss directly influences river systems like the Brahmaputra, making it increasingly vulnerable to seasonal variability.
Hydrological Impact: Dredging and Waterway Management
Addressing the water flow irregularities of the Brahmaputra requires a multifaceted approach, beginning with better management of the river itself. Experts suggest dredging the Brahmaputra to deepen its channel, which would reduce flooding during the monsoon season and improve navigability year-round. Transforming the Brahmaputra into a fully functional national waterway holds promise for bolstering Assam’s economic potential, but such interventions should be grounded in a thorough understanding of the river’s unique ecosystem and hydrodynamics.
Effective dredging could reduce sedimentation, a major problem in the Brahmaputra, which is one of the most sediment-heavy rivers in the world. This would not only ease the chronic flood situation in Assam but also facilitate smoother inland navigation—a critical aspect of economic integration in India’s Northeast. However, implementing such measures requires extensive research and collaboration between governmental agencies, scientists, and local communities to avoid unintended ecological consequences.
The Role of International Cooperation and Governance
The Brahmaputra’s challenges underscore the need for robust international cooperation. It is crucial that India engages with China through diplomatic channels to establish a reliable information-sharing mechanism concerning the river’s water flows. In the absence of formal treaties, informal dialogues and back-channel negotiations could pave the way for more structured cooperation. Additionally, multilateral platforms like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal (BBIN) Initiative offer opportunities to address shared water concerns collectively.
The World Bank has previously advocated for regional river basin management initiatives, which could serve as a template for the Brahmaputra. If all stakeholders —including China—commit to a shared vision of sustainable river management, it would mitigate the risks associated with unilateral actions. This approach could also bring additional benefits, such as improved flood management, enhanced agriculture, and greater regional stability.
Preserving the Brahmaputra Valley Civilisation: A Call for Action
The Brahmaputra is more than just a river; it is the lifeblood of Assam’s cultural, social, and economic identity. The rising threats to its stability—from the unpredictable impacts of climate change to the geopolitical maneuvers by neighboring countries —demand a comprehensive and well-coordinated response. This includes stricter enforcement of environmental regulations, enhanced data collection on river flow dynamics, and increased investment in adaptive infrastructure to cope with future uncertainties.
The state government, in coordination with the Centre, must take proactive measures to mitigate these challenges. A dedicated Brahmaputra River Commission could serve as a centralised body to oversee the implementation of sustainable river management practices, coordinate with international partners, and ensure the ecological health of the river system. Additionally, the scientific community must be empowered with greater resources to study the Brahmaputra’s changing hydrology, focusing on predictive models that account for both climatic and geopolitical variables.
Navigating a Complex Future
The crisis surrounding the Brahmaputra’s receding waters is a stark reminder of the complex interplay between nature and politics in South Asia. Addressing this issue requires a blend of science, diplomacy, and regional cooperation. For Assam, ensuring the long-term sustainability of the Brahmaputra is not just an environmental necessity but an existential imperative. The challenge is daunting, but with a clear-eyed, unified strategy, the region can safeguard its future, ensuring that the Brahmaputra continues to flow as a perennial source of life and prosperity for generations to come.