One important point to be noted here is that a ministry headed by HBS but without Sri Sonowal is a probable proposition, but a ministry headed by Sri Sonowal without HBS as a member is almost an impossible proposition
Udayan Hazarika
(The writer can be reached at udayanhazarika@hotmail.com)
Nothing is surprising in the fact that BJP is returning to power in the State. The factual position is that the party had done its homework much before they were going to the poll. Not only the routine homework like mass publicity of its performances, grassroots contacts by strengthening its organizational structures and bringing national leaders, including the PM Modi to tell their success stories to the people, but also did additional homework by designing and implementing popular schemes involving financial assistance to millions of families investing huge of government funds. These schemes have created millions of beneficiaries in favour of the party who later returned the benefits by way of casting votes in favour of the party. The Government indeed had carefully designed its strategy and played the game from the front. The populist schemes targeting the voters were launched in 2019 and some were even launched in 2018 on a low scale but left it to be implemented fully in the election year. The motive behind this offensive design was not difficult to understand from which it can easily be concluded that the party will be back to power Ceteris Paribus (The Sentinel op-Ed- 19 March). Now the time has come to activate the first stage of the post-election – the process of selection of the leader. The media – especially the electronic media, appears to be quite active in this count and already some of them are presenting programmes in the form of opinions of common people, etc., about the future CM. The fact is that a question as to who will be the next CM should not have arisen especially when the ruling party has come back to power. But unfortunately, the question has arisen and this inevitably will lead one to believe that Shri Sonowal despite having a full term in the office has failed to establish himself as an undisputed leader of the party. Some sitting members of the ruling party earlier and even now have made open claims for CM's birth for HBS.
The three important facts about the BJP's election strategy in 2021 were i) choosing the appropriate candidate for the constituency ii) planning campaign after carefully considering the voters' cultural and religious categories and iii) adopting the appropriate methods of campaigning. The election speeches were prepared to highlight the performances of the government –indicating the schemes with strong assurances that the remaining works will be completed immediately after forming the next government. This reactivated the voters who were already beneficiaries and also those who are the potential beneficiary in future schemes. The person behind this design was none other than Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma (HBS) himself.
The fact that HBS's possibility to be chosen as the leader of the BJP legislature party is fairly good for the reason that most of the BJP candidates who have won the elections are his known followers. HBS was instrumental in designing the campaign in the case of all these candidates. He ran from one constituency to another campaigning for the party candidate and inducing the public to join his roadshows, processions and election meetings. Many of these candidates immediately after winning the elections have gratefully acknowledged the effort of HBS in their winning. Selection of a candidate for CM's birth will therefore not be an easy task for the BJP Parliamentary Committee. Today, even a child knows that the election would not have gone in favour of the BJP had not the 'Mama' (HBS) actively took part in that electioneering. Even his critiques will admit that the election would not have won had not the populist schemes designed by HBS to appease all sections of people including tea garden and ex-tea garden labourers were implemented. The announcement of waiving micro finance dues at a crucial time has worked wonderfully. Thousands of micro debtors have come out and voted for the ruling party. All these led to the UPPL leader Promod Boro coming out openly in favouring a 'bold' leader as Chief Minister for the State.
Apart from these, other factors may come up for discussion in the parliamentary committee meetings. The prominent among these may be the performances of both the leaders. Of late, there have also been allegations that the CM's office has a role in the SI recruitment scam and the CM is criticised for advising the Chairman of the Police Recruitment Board to resign before he could be brought under the enquiry procedure. Allegations are also levelled against him for his indifferent attitude towards some crucial issues concerning the State most of which had to be taken care of by the Finance Minister. Even in matters related to home affairs, during the CAA agitation, almost all the public statements were issued by Shri H.B. Sarma. Over and above, HBS has the credit of handling the Covid-19 situation in Assam effectively which is one of the basic reasons for voting the party to power.
Against the above backdrop, it would be a difficult task for the Parliamentary Committee to select one leader from the list of two. One important point to be noted here is that a ministry headed by HBS but without Sri Sonowal is a probable proposition, but a ministry headed by Sri Sonowal without HBS as a member is almost an impossible proposition. Earlier, although, PM Modi backed Sonowal for the CM's birth, this time considering his average performance, Modi may wait for the opinions of the Parliamentary Committee. The Committee may also take note of the fact of the next Lok Sabha election in 2024 in the context of which the Committee and for that matter, HM Amit Shah may like to retain HBS for managing the affairs of the State as HBS has already shown his expertise in handling NE voters. In such a situation, the most probable cause will be to shifting Sonowal back to Delhi which Sri Sonowal may not agree with easily. Thus, a deadlock is imminent taking into account the issue. The vice versa will not be operational as Shah is not in favour of taking HBS to Delhi (recall the happenings during last general elections to Lok Sabha 2019 when Delhi advised him not to contest). From earlier indications from HBS on various occasions, one thing is very clear that he will not be willing to continue in the same status at the No-2 position in the forthcoming ministry.
Recently, CM Sri Sonowal made an elaborate analysis of factors responsible for winning the current elections by the BJP. In his analysis, he gave credits to the people of Assam and all those who have come to the State for campaigning for that party candidate including PM Modi, Amit Shah, J.P. Nadda, CMs of Madhya Pradesh and UP, former CMs of Maharastra and Chhattisgarh, Agriculture Minister N.S. Tomar, and others. He also thanked party workers and the alliance partners, but nowhere in the list had he mentioned the name of HBS (Sentinel 4 April). The reasons for these are obvious. Even the most serious critiques of HBS will acknowledge what HBS has done for the Party in the election.