Editorial

Manipur poised for multi-cornered contest

Sentinel Digital Desk

Elections to the 60-member Manipur Assembly scheduled on February 28 and March 5 has high stakes for both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress. The BJP going alone and contesting all 60 seats on its own after sharing powers with the National People's Party (NPP) and Naga People's Front (NPF) for five years has made the contest interesting for poll watchers. Both NPP and NPF making all efforts to retain their kingmaker roles, the poll outcome will have ramifications on electoral politics in Meghalaya and Nagaland. As BJP is a constituent of the ruling coalition in Meghalaya led by NPP and shares power with the NPF in Nagaland, the outcome of Manipur polls and post-poll equations will also determine the party's poll strategy in Meghalaya and Nagaland which are going to polls next year. The BJP is striving for securing an absolute majority on its own in a bid to avoid overdependence on regional parties in government formation. Desertion and defections left Congress weaker in the last five years which has emboldened the BJP to take a big leap in Manipur's electoral politics. The Congress fell short of the magic number by only two seats in 2017 Assembly polls and deft political manoeuvring by BJP prevented it from retaining power for the fourth consecutive term. Having learnt its lessons for dithering on stitching post-poll equations with regional parties, the Congress is pinning hopes on this election throwing up a hung House to return to power with the support of NPP and NPF. The BJP too has kept its post-poll options open in the event of a fractured verdict but exuding confidence of a single majority to woo voters to increase its tally. Despite fighting against each other, BJP and NPP continue to be constituents of BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and if the need arises, the BJP hopes to fall back on the two regional parties in a post-poll scenario. This also made BJP poll strategists believe that the party would be having an edge over the Congress even in a hung House. But nothing is impossible in electoral politics and the numbers will play a critical role in determining the permutations and combinations of post-poll possibilities. The NPP led by Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma originated in Manipur and nurtures a larger ambition of growing into a strong pan-Northeast regional party improving its tally in this assembly polls is crucial to shaping the trajectory of its influence. Electioneering was on low key due to COVID restrictions on rallies and roadshows but has picked up with relaxations. The BJP has roped in Prime Minister Narendra Modi to push its campaign of double engine government – the government led by Modi at the Centre and the government in the state led by incumbent Chief Minister N Biren Singh. The ruling party is also harping on blockade and bandh-free five years during BJP-led regime compared to frequent disruption of normal life due to long spells of blockades during Congress regime. It is also showcasing its claim of bridging the gap between the hills and the valley to be reflective of inclusive governance. The Congress, on the other hand, roped in Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi as star campaigners, as it struggles to keep its bastions in north-eastern states protected from onslaughts of the BJP. The Congress is not only out of power from all states in the region it has been left weaker by every election in the region and the party's performance will indicate if it will be able to make a comeback. The Congress has forged a five-party alliance with left parties but as the influence of its allies is limited to a few pockets, it is largely counting on its own electioneering harping on its allegation that the incumbent BJP-led government failed to deliver on its poll promises. Congress has made a rise in unemployment a major poll plank in a bid to counter BJP's claim of development and delivering good governance. The NPP in a bid to project itself an alternative to both BJP and Congress has accused the two national parties of failing to fulfil the aspirations of the people. A number of BJP rebel candidates jumping in the fray on tickets of rival parties as well as Janata Dal (United)- BJP's coalition partner in Bihar and in National Democratic Alliance, has left poll pundits guessing on poll prospects of parties in key constituencies. The Congress and NPP raising allegations of attacks and intimidations by militant outfits will require the Election Commission to review the security situation and strengthen the measures for conducting a free-and-fair poll. It is good to see development and governance taking centre stage in the insurgency ravaged state. Manipur is poised for an interesting multi-cornered contest to elect a new set of legislators.