Amitava Mukherjee
(amitavamukherjee253@gmail.com)
The name Jayprakash Narayan always crops up whenever there are talks about opposition unity. But the problem is that Jayprakash was an idealist titan, and after his demise, there is no titan in the Indian socio-political arena. In the recently concluded opposition parties’ conclave in Patna, there were two people whose political rise was mentored by Jayprakash Narayan: Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. But compared to the venerable Jayprakash, these two are mere pygmies. Nitish Kumar has a unique record of changing sides. And then there was Lalu Prasad Yadav—well, everybody knows about him.
So Mamata Banerjee should have thought twice before taking the name of Jayprakash Narayan and contextualising the great freedom fighter’s name in relation to the opposition’s meeting in Patna. JP fought for a cause—the cause of rescuing democracy from the clutches of Indira Gandhi’s Emergency. What are the causes and ideals the sixteen opposition parties who met in Patna are putting forward before the people of India?
The only time in recent history when India witnessed a unity of opposition parties was in 1977, when Jayprakash Narayan brought together several parties against Indira Gandhi’s emergency. But that happened on a touchstone of principle and policy. Just remember the names that were at the forefront of the struggle against Indira Gandhi and her Congress: Morarji Desai, Atal Bihari Vajpayi, Lal Krishna Advani, Madhu Limaye, Geoge Fernandez, Madhu Dandavate, Nanaji Deshmukh, and others. None of them was burdened with any corruption charges. None of the principal opposition political parties—the Congress (O), the Jan Sangh, or the Socialists—was troubled by internal dissension. Moreover, very few of the principal political lights from the opposition groups could be charged with political ‘turncoatism’.
Here lies the Achilles Heel of the present grouping, which met in Patna and is intending to meet in Simla in the near future. Sharad Pawar and his Nationalist Congress Party are strongly rumoured to be suffering from an internal tussle between Supriya Sule and Ajit Pawar. Mamata Banerjee’s stewardship as the Chief Minister of West Bengal is under a long shadow. Almost the entire staff of her department of education is in jail on corruption charges. So much so that she had to appoint a new education minister as the former one is now behind bars. In Bihar, Lalu’s RJD is now in power in collaboration with the Janata Dal (United). But the stigma of corruption is there.
Let us look at the geographical picture. The opposition is on solid bedrock only in Bihar. Mayawati was absent from the meeting. Her performance in the last Uttar Pradesh Assembly election may have been poor. But that does not mean that Behenji has lost all of her caste support. Who can say that she will not split anti-BJP votes in at least 30 seats in the 2024 parliamentary election? More importantly, Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party are now only faded shadows of their past selves.
The opposition has made a bad start by not being able to rope in Navin Patnaik of Orissa, Jagan Mohan Reddy or Chandrababu Naidu from Andhra Pradesh, and Chandrasekhar Rao from Telangana. Large swaths of land in the country’s eastern and southern parts remain outside the Opposition’s influence. Only the DMK in Tamil Nadu will be able to make much difference in the final electoral calculations. In Telangana, not only the BJP but also the Congress are trying to cross KCR’s path.
The latter’s Bharat Rashtra Samity has all-India ambitions, and under no circumstances is the Telangana Chief Minister expected to allow any space to a conglomeration where Congress is one of the principal partners. In addition, a piquant situation will arise in Kerala, where the Congress and the CPM are involved in a ding-dong battle. The electoral scenario in Kerala will become more confusing as the BJP tries to endear itself to the minority Christian community, among whom Congress has a good following. If the Congress feels threatened in this segment of the electorate, then it will naturally try to poach from among traditional Left voters. Will the CPM tolerate this?
The Aam Admi Party (AAP) remains a rebellious proposition. Don’t think that the tiff between the AAP and the Congress is only the outcome of the latter’s refusal to commit itself publicly and in advance to opposing the Ordinance that the central government has promulgated in matters of the Delhi administration. It is basically a war of area dominance. Still, Congress cannot reconcile itself to the reality that it has lost Delhi and Punjab to the AAP and is on the way to losing its political base in Haryana to Arvind Kejriwal’s party. Moreover, AAP is showing all the potentialities to use soft Hindutva to counter the BJP, a trait Congress has desperately tried to master over the years.
The Opposition leaders are speaking of releasing some sort of manifesto in the near future. This has to be radically different from the policies of the BJP. So far as economic thinking is concerned, there is very little to differentiate between the BJP and the Congress. Both have fallen for economic laissez-faire. How will the CPM reconcile itself to such a policy? Perhaps Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav will also have reservations about it. History shows that Congress has always viewed the question of federalism from the standpoint of its own existence. It considers itself the only political force that can hold India together and is therefore cautious about granting too much space to regional parties, although ground realities suggest that ‘one party-centred federal structure’ has become outdated in India.
To solve all these conundrums, the Opposition parties need the presence of a statesman among them. Alas! There is no such person in sight.