Kamal Uddin Mazumder
(The writer is a security and strategic affairs
analyst in Dhaka, Bangladesh)
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is going to pay a two-day state visit to India beginning Friday (June 21)) at the invitation of her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi. This will be her second visit to India in less than two weeks and the first incoming bilateral visit to India by any head of government after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed its government for the third consecutive time following the 18th Lok Sabha elections. Hasina was among seven top leaders from India’s neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean region who attended the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Union council of ministers at the Rashtrapati Bhavan on June 9. In Delhi, she will hold bilateral consultations with Prime Minister Modi and is also scheduled to call on President Draupadi Murmu and Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will call on the Prime Minister after she arrives in Delhi in the evening.
Over the years, India and Bangladesh have forged a multifaceted relationship, marked by a shared history, culture, and geographical proximity. The two neighbours enjoy warm ties, which have further expanded under the leadership of PM Modi and Sheikh Hasina. The first half of 2024 has also witnessed a spur of bilateral interactions between the two countries, as an embodiment of the strength of the relationship. After Prime Minister Hasina assumed office in January 2024 after her consecutive fourth-term victory, Prime Minister Modi held a telephonic conversation on January 8, 2024. The newly appointed Bangladesh Foreign Minister, Dr. Hasan Mahmud, paid an official visit to India from February 7–9, 2024. This was his first bilateral official visit abroad after taking charge as Bangladesh Foreign Minister in January 2024. Hasina participated in the Munich Security Conclave as her first official visit abroad after assuming charge, and Jaishankar met her on the sidelines. Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra visited Dhaka from May 8 to 9, 2024, to sustain the momentum of visits and exchanges between both countries.
Each time she visits, there is hope for substantial progress in resolving longstanding issues that have strained relations between the two countries for more than fifty years. Sheikh Hasina’s visit holds substantial significance for Bangladesh, presenting new dimensions of connectivity, strategic partnerships, and geopolitical assertiveness. This visit comes at a critical juncture, offering both nations opportunities to deepen their bilateral relations and address pressing issues that have long impacted their interactions. This visit also holds significant importance for both nations as they strive to further expand the already close ties between the two countries and address pressing issues ahead of Prime Minister Hasina’s forthcoming visit to China.
Modi and Hasina are scheduled to hold wide-ranging talks on Saturday (June 22), during which both sides are likely to firm up a raft of agreements providing for cooperation in several sectors to take bilateral ties to new heights. Key issues on the agenda include cross-border connectivity initiatives, Indian investments in the Teesta special economic zone, management of Mongla port, development of defence ties, and power trade. Additionally, discussions on a potential trade pact are expected. Fresh loans from India under a new framework will also be high on the agenda of the bilateral talks as Bangladesh grapples with a crunch in foreign currency reserves. Besides, the Myanmar crisis, especially the intense fighting in Rakhine State, will feature prominently during the delegation-level meeting between Hasina and her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi.
For a long time, the Teesta water sharing issue has been a topic that comes to the fore during any visit between India and Bangladesh. The Indian central government, at the time led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, could not sign the deal in 2011 due to the opposition of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. During a visit to Dhaka in May this year, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra expressed Delhi’s interest in financing the Teesta project, which triggered a geopolitical discussion about which option Bangladesh will go for. So, the issue of funding for the “Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project” will feature prominently in the talks. The two prime ministers will also discuss the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, which was signed in 1996 and is set to expire in 2026.
Issues of connectivity will be an important element of discussion. The Bangladesh-India Friendship Bridge is one of the projects to be announced as open during the visit. This bridge will establish a link between Ramgarh in Khagrachhari and Sabrum in Tripura state. India is keen to manage the Mongla river port, which is crucial for better connectivity between Kolkata and India’s north-eastern states and aligns with the country’s broader strategy to counter China’s expanding influence in the region. India is also keen to develop an alternative network of railway routes through Bangladesh to connect its northeast with the rest of the country. This would reduce India’s reliance on the existing route through Siliguri. Over the past decade, numerous cross-border initiatives have been launched as part of a robust regional partnership plan. The issue of rail connectivity between Bangladesh and India has come to the fore again. According to a high-level source in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on rail connectivity is likely to be signed between Bangladesh and Indian railways on this visit as a measure towards boosting trade and commerce between the two neighbouring countries.
The Modi-Hasina summit on Saturday might also focus on enhancing the defence partnership between the two nations. The overall strategic ties between India and Bangladesh have been on an upswing in the last few years. Her visit to India is significant for multiple reasons. It presents an opportunity to enhance connectivity, assert Bangladesh’s strategic interests in the Teesta water-sharing issue, and balance growing US influence in the region. Moreover, it underscores the mutual dependence between Bangladesh and India, which is essential for regional stability and prosperity. By leveraging this visit, Bangladesh can strengthen its bilateral relations, address longstanding issues, and position itself as a key player in the regional geopolitical landscape. India may, in principle, approve the supply of electricity from Bhutan to Bangladesh using its power grid. Bangladesh will seek a smooth supply of essentials like wheat, sugar, and onions from India.
Bangladesh-India relations are characterised by cooperation and development across nearly every sector. The economic progress and strong connectivity initiatives of both countries have spurred discussions about forming a comprehensive economic partnership. Recognising their mutual high growth and stability, they are now moving towards signing the Bangladesh-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This agreement aims to capitalise on the mutual trust and understanding that exist on various bilateral issues. The timing is crucial as Bangladesh is transitioning out of its least developed country (LDC) status and facing new challenges. Over the past 15 years, the bilateral economic relationship between Bangladesh and India has flourished, moving into new areas of collaboration by reinforcing traditional ties and laying the groundwork for a deeper partnership. India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trade partner, and Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia. Bilateral trade has steadily increased, with Bangladesh’s exports to India tripling over the last decade. The two leaders may also announce the launch of formal negotiations for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA).