Population, Climate Change and Natural Disasters

Dr. Mukul Chandra Bora

(Director, Dibrugarh University Institute of Engineering and Technology. He can be reached at drmukulcbora@gmail.com)

 The exponential increase in the world population, especially in developing countries in the 20th century, was the fastest growth in human history. It came on the heels of the Industrial Revolution, and the combination of the two factors led to a huge increase in carbon emissions. The carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere in 1950 was around 300 parts per million, but just under 70 years later, that number had increased to 400 parts per million. This is a huge increase in a geologically minuscule period. During that same time, the world’s population increased by over 5 billion. These two facts are closely related. India, having the 2nd largest population with 2.4% of the land spaces in the world, is accommodating about 17% of the world’s population, which in turn causes large scale changes in the land use pattern of the country. This is the reason why the number of people affected by natural calamities is increasing very fast, and if it continues, then the days are not far when there may be catastrophic deaths of its people.

People need food to survive, and as the world’s population grows, so too does the demand for food. To meet this demand, agricultural development has caused deforestation on a large scale. The shrinking forests are unable to counteract the effects of the increasing carbon emissions, causing temperatures to rise. Because of the increased need for agriculture, precious water resources are being used to grow food, making less water available for human consumption. Agricultural water use tends to consume water at a rate greater than natural processes can replenish it, causing further loss of water and increased desertification. 

Every year, climate change forces millions of people to leave their homes. In 2022, 53% of the global share of internal displacements was triggered by disasters. 98% of these disaster displacements were caused by weather-related hazards exacerbated by climate change. The decrease in population growth is a necessary requirement to reduce carbon emissions in the future; however, it’s unclear if this can lead to “population control” programmes in developing countries. And as we know, these countries would be severely affected by climate change. From this perspective, at least one of three possible interaction ways between demographic trends and the effects of climate change has been identified: (i) a quick deterioration of the natural resources’ sources, (ii) the increased demand for scarce resources; and (iii) the increasing human vulnerability to extreme meteorological phenomena.

Research results indicate that more voluntary access possibilities for family planning services would be offered to poor communities in less developed countries. This approach prioritizes the wellness of poor affected communities because of climate change, unlike the other position that proposed reducing population growth to limit the increase in global carbon emissions.

Population growth increases demand for goods and services, which certainly involves increased environmental pressure. At the same time, economic growth, which is considered the best way to reduce the population growth rate, is also associated with severe natural resource degradation. Up to now, in developing countries, economic growth mechanisms have been unable to reduce population pressure and unequal economic development, but at the same time, these mechanisms tend to reinforce the environmental degradation factors resulting from economic activity. It is what we call the economic growth paradox.

Two solutions are normally expected to limit population growth in the third world: the first is based on the control of the fertility rate and the other on economic growth. In theory, these two solutions must be complementary, but in practice, they are often contradictory. Although there have been some good results, the first solution, based on fertility control, not only faces many economic, social, and cultural barriers that severely limit its application in poor countries but also seems unable to face the demographic problem. The second solution, such as economic growth, which is increasingly widespread, is also open to some basic objections. Discussions about climate change generally tend to focus on the carbon emissions of a person throughout his or her life; these are important and essential issues to consider. However, a further challenge that we face is population growth and increasing global resource consumption.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is expected that climate change will intensify the stress currently experienced by water resources due to population growth, economic change, land uses, and, in particular, urbanisation. On a regional scale, mountain snowbanks, glaciers, and small ice caps play a crucial role regarding the availability of fresh water. According to projections, widespread mass losses of glaciers and snow cover reductions over recent decades would be accelerated during the 21st century, reducing water availability and hydroelectric potential and changing flows seasonality in regions supplied by meltwater from the main mountain ranges (e.g., Hindu Kush, Himalaya, and the Andes), where currently more than the sixth part of the world population lives.

India is one of the ten most disaster-prone countries in the world. The country is prone to disasters due to a number of factors, both natural and human induced, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographic features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanization, industrialization, nonscientific development practices, etc. The factors accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for taking a heavy toll on human lives and disrupting the life support system in the country. As far as vulnerability to disaster is concerned, the five distinctive regions of the country, i.e., the Himalayan region, the alluvial plains, the hilly part of the peninsula, and the coastal zone, have their own specific problems. On the one hand, the Himalayan region is prone to disasters like earthquakes and landslides, but the plains are affected by floods almost every year. The desert part of the country is affected by droughts and famine, while the coastal zone is susceptible to cyclones and storms.

Vulnerability to floods and other natural disasters is caused by the high population density, widespread poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, enormous pressure on rural land, and an economy traditionally dominated by agriculture. Children and women are particularly vulnerable. Eighty-five percent of the deaths during disasters are of women and children (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, CRED 2000). Presently, there is an inadequate level of protection in the country against floods. Though non-structural measures improve preparedness for floods and reduce losses, the necessity of structural measures will always remain to reduce the extent of physical damage caused by floods. In the future, programmes for flood control and management planning, along with climate change, need to be integrated into development planning for the country.

According to a study conducted by various researchers in 2012, it was observed that Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding, which are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability, which are the results of high population density. However, the topography and natural bodies like hills, rivers, lakes, etc. are more prevalent in India. India has a variety of land resources, including plains, mountains, and plateaus, that provide facilities for agriculture and industry. Approximately 43% of land is plains and 30% is mountains. Land is utilized for forests, agriculture, non-agricultural uses like buildings and roads, pastures, and uncultivated land, and due to increases in population, large-scale encroachment in hills and water bodies is going on, which in turn provides us with the phenomenon of artificial floods and landslides. The recent artificial floods all over India are an alarming situation for all of us, and we have to have strict population control to act together with complete mitigation of infiltrations from neighbouring countries.

Similarly, it was found that floods are the leading cause of natural disaster deaths worldwide, responsible for 6.8 million deaths in the 20th century. Asia is the most flood-affected region, accounting for nearly 50% of flood-related fatalities in the last quarter of the century. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) defines a flood as “a significant rise of water level in a stream, lake, reservoir, or coastal region.” More commonly, flooding is the “presence of water in areas that are usually dry.” The factors that cause floods are diverse, multifaceted, and interrelated. Weather-related causes include heavy or sustained precipitation, snowmelt, and storm surges from cyclones, while human factors include structural failures of dams and levees, the replacement of absorptive land cover with impervious surfaces, and inadequate drainage systems. Coastal areas, river basins, and lakeshores are particularly at risk from storms or cyclones that generate high winds and storm surges. Environmental and physical land features, such as soil type, vegetation, and other drainage basin characteristics, also influence flood outcomes, where the major cause is the exponential growth of population.

So, in short, if we are not favouring strict population action, then this beautiful country will be there, but there will be hardly anyone to enjoy our land and properties. This will happen as nature will always have a tendency to balance its equilibrium, which in turn will devastate our houses, which were constructed by occupying the natural features. We may go into space, but we cannot control nature because we are also a small drop of it. It is worth mentioning that between 1998 and 2017, landslides affected an estimated 4.8 million people and caused more than 18000 deaths. Climate change and rising temperatures are expected to trigger more landslides, especially in mountainous areas with snow and ice.