Editorial

Rebooting Indian Economy

Sentinel Digital Desk

The Economic Survey 2021-2022 has lifted the mood amidst the COVID-19 pandemic gloom. The survey has projected 8-8.5 per cent in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022-23 fiscal after contraction of GDP to 6.6% in 2020-21. It has also flagged gaps in certain sectors like education in rural India, farm credit disbursal which will require special attention. The projection of GDP growth is less than the World Economic Outlook projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF outlook projected India's real GDP to grow at 9 per cent in 2021-22 and 2022-23 and 7.1 per cent in 2023-2024. The projection, however, is comparable with World Bank and Asian Development Bank's latest forecasts of real GDP growth of 8.7 per cent and 7.5 per cent respectively for 2022-23 which has triggered hopes for rebooting the Indian economy after pandemic devastation. The survey report states that with the revival of the economy, employment indicators bounced back to pre-pandemic levels during the last quarter of 2020-21. It highlights the quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PFLS) data up to March 2021 that show that employment in the urban sector affected by pandemic has recovered almost to the pre-pandemic level. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data, however, show that unemployment rates increased to 7.91 in December 2021 – 9.30 in urban areas and 7.28 in rural India and demand for employment will continue to keep the government on toes. The agriculture sector experienced buoyant growth in the past two years, according to the Economic Survey, accounting for a sizeable 18.8% (2021-22) in Gross Value Added (GVA) of the country registering a growth of 3.6% in 2020-21 and 3.9% in 2021-22. The Minimum Support Price (MSP) policy is being used to promote crop diversification, it says. The Food Corporation of India and states in the northeast region have failed to ensure MSP benefits to farmers in the region with paddy procurement by FCI and government agencies not improving leading to distress sell-by farmers. The services sector continues to dominate contributing over 50% of the GDP and during the first half of 2021-22 received over 16.7 billion US dollar Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) – accounting for almost 54 per cent of total FDI inflows into India. The government providing incentives in key service sectors like health, tourism, education, engineering, communications, information technology, banking, finance, and management has fueled the spectacular growth of the services sector generating employment apart from attracting an increasing flow of FDI. Incentives under the third phase of Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikash Yojana launched in 600 districts, the National Digital Health Mission for providing a unique health ID to every Indian, raising the FDI limit for insurance from 49% to 74%for insurance companies and 100% for insurance intermediaries are among the schemes, programmes and incentives that have spurred the growth in the services sector. The Economic Survey has projected that the year ahead is poised for a pickup in private sector investment "with the financial system in a good position to provide support for economy's revival". The survey notes that the pandemic has had a significant impact on the education system affecting lakhs of schools and refers to the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2021 which has assessed the impact during the pandemic for the education sector in rural areas. The ASER report found that during a pandemic, children (age 6-14 years) 'not currently enrolled in schools' increased from 2.5 % in 2018 to 4.6 % in 2021 which is an area of concern. To identify out of school children, their mainstreaming, and research sharing, the Government has shared the Covid-19 action plan with States and Union Territories, adds the Survey but it remains to be seen how the Union Budget proposes to allocate resources in the education sector to plug the gap an mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 in the sector, more particularly in rural areas. The government expenditure in the social service sector increased 9.8% in 2021-22 over 2020-21 with expenditure on the health sector registering an increase of 73% from Rs 2.73 lakh crore to Rs 4.72 lakh crore. The ASER report brings to light that during pandemic children in rural areas has moved out of private to government schools in all age groups and possible reasons suggested for the shift being shut down of low-cost private schools, financial distress of parents, the pressure will be mounting on the government to increase allocation for increasing expenditure in education sector to build the capacity of government schools. More allocation for drinking water and sanitation in schools under the Jal Jeevan Mission and Swatch Bharat Mission will be required to cater to the requirement in government schools and prevent dropout. While growth projections made in the Survey has triggered hopes for the Indian economy to rebound, all eyes will be on the Union Budget to be presented today as to how the government plans to achieve the projected GDP growth.