Brig. R. Borthakur (Retd)
(ranshre03@yahoo.com)
The sudden turn of events in Bangladesh has few parallels in recent history. There are instances when the head of government has fled
his country due to a coup or other unrest, but in this instant case, the development leading to Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and fleeing the country has taken almost everyone by surprise.
The student agitation in Bangladesh, which started in June 2024, against the job quota system for families of Mukti Yodhas (freedom fighters), apparently subsided for a few days with the Supreme Court’s directions on July 21, 2024, wherein the Apex Court set aside the High Court’s order.
In fact, Shiekh Hasina scrapped the quota system in 2018 following a massive student protest. However, the Bangladesh High Court in June 2024 reinstated the quotas based on a petition filed by the families of Mukti Yodhas, which was eventually overturned by the Supreme Court. Thus, it was a legal battle where, technically, Sheikh Hasina had no role.
If one carries out a dispassionate analysis of the chain of events, it appears that the larger game of the agitators was to ensure the resignation of the prime minister. The violent crackdown by the police during the agitation, during which hundreds of students were killed, only hastened the process.
There are a few theories going around regarding the reasons for Hasina’s ouster. An article published in the “Economic Times” on August 11 claimed that foreign powers, particularly the USA, played a big role in ousting her from power. Hasina’s refusal to grant permission to the USA to establish a base on Saint Martin Island had greatly disappointed the USA. However, Sajeeb Wazed, son of Sheikh Hasina, subsequently refuted the report, saying that it was “completely false and fabricated.” Sheikh Hasina had also said on more than one occasion that there was a conspiracy to break parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh to build a Christian nation with a base in the Bay of Bengal.
Saint Martin Island, located in the northeastern part of the Bay of Bengal, about 9 km from Cox’s Bazar, is a tiny piece of land but holds strategic significance. However, as far back as 2003, the then US envoy to BD, Mary Ann Peters, said that her country “has no plans, no requirements, and no desire for a military base in Saint Martin Island or anywhere.”.
If a foreign country sets up a military base on that island, that country would automatically have a presence in the Straits of Malacca. A base on that island will provide a great opportunity to carry out surveillance of Chinese military activities in the Bay of Bengal as well as in Myanmar. The Bay of Bengal is one of the most important sea lanes of communication that connects China, Japan, and Korea with the Middle East and Africa.
Similarly, Bangladesh is very important for China to expand her influence in the Bay of Bengal as well as in South Asian countries. China is one of the biggest trading partners with Bangladesh. In 2022, China exported goods worth $26.8 billion. China holds 17% of Bangladesh’s total trade.
Last year (2023), Sheikh Hasina unveiled the country’s first submarine base in Cox’s Bazar, constructed with the help of China. China is aware of her limited and unfavourable maritime geography and has long sought access with the help of Myanmar and Bangladesh. The Chinese Silk Road Initiative, which aims to connect Chinese ports with those of Asia, Europe, and Africa, sees Bangladesh as an important element.
However, of late, China has been lukewarm to Bangladesh, as seen in the recent visit (July 2024) of Hasina to China. China has shown her annoyance as Bangladesh has given priority to India in the Teesta River Development Project. China’s message to Bangladesh was clear. China expects greater loyalty from Bangladesh. On the other hand, China’s refusal to provide a financial package had annoyed Hasina. Though China’s hand in the present crisis in Bangladesh is less likely, many believe that China’s intelligence agency, MSS (Ministry of State Service), may be involved in fomenting trouble.
There are also a number of indications that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), particularly party chief Khalida Zia’s son Tarique Rahman, could be instrumental in toppling Sheikh Hasina’s government. Reports indicate that Tarique, presently based in the United Kingdom (UK), had travelled several times to meet Pakistan Inter Service officials in Gulf countries to work out a plan to oust Hasina.
Reportedly, BNP and ISI had a deal regarding the planned coup at their first meeting held in London in 2018. Subsequently, Tarique had a series of meetings with the Pak ISI officials in Dubai and a few other European cities. In the last six years. It is believed that ISI, through Tarique Rahman, has given several million dollars to students to organise anti-Hasina activities.
It is noteworthy that in 2018, a Bangladeshi court gave Tarique Rahman death sentences for his role in an attempt on the life of Sheikh Hasina. On August 21, 2004, Sheikh Hasina was attacked during a political rally at Sylhet but survived the attack. However, 24 people were killed and more than 500 injured. Subsequent information revealed that the BNP, with the help of extremist organisations, had planned the attack. The hands of ULFA leaders were also discussed, but subsequently, no evidence was found.
It may take time to ascertain if the protest to overthrow the Sheikh Hasina government was spontaneous due to her authoritarian and high-handed policies or if any other country or organisation was also involved. However, the immediate concern is how the caretaker government can uphold the Bangladesh constitution and provide security to all communities.