The return of coalition era

The era of coalition has returned to Indian politics, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) missing the majority mark even though it is poised to form the government with its allies of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the third consecutive term. The emergence of Chandrababu Naidu-led Telegu Desam Party (TDP), Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena as kingmakers has put regional allies in the NDA on stronger wickets. The BJP will now be dependent on these regional allies for the stability of the government that is likely to be formed with their support. As both TDP and JD(U) were coalition partners of the Congress in the past, the apprehension of any change in the political equation will keep the BJP on its toes. The Congress-led I.N.D.I.A bloc capitalised on the discontent among the people over the price rise of essentials and rising unemployment to increase its tally, but an aggressive campaign by the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity prevented the opposition bloc from inching closer to the magic number of 272. The last time the coalition era dominated Indian politics was from 1989 to 2014. The 25-year-long era of coalition politics gripped Indian electoral politics till 2014, when the Modi wave swept the country and the BJP returned to power with an absolute majority. The BJP also made history by becoming the first non-Congress party to secure an absolute majority. This helped the BJP push its economic reforms and set the narrative that scams and policy paralysis had stalled economic progress during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) due to the dominance of coalition equations. The Modi magic helped the BJP retain power for the second consecutive term when it won a huge mandate of 303 seats and pushed economic reforms more aggressively. The failure of the government to address the price rise of essentials, including the LPG price, resulted in jobless growth, resulting in an alarming rise in unemployment despite stellar performance in infrastructure development such as roads, bridges, hospitals, etc., which eroded its popularity, giving room for opposition parties to consolidate. The Congress and other constituents of I.N.D.I.A bloc, on the other hand, failed to reach the consensus of fielding one common candidate in all the states and took a long time in finalising the seat-sharing formula, which gave the BJP and NDA allies the advantage in the electioneering. The BJP, by setting the target of 370 seats for itself and 400 plus for the NDA, raised the aspirations of its workers and supporters, which also helped neutralise the anti-incumbency that had set in to a great extent and check the erosion of popular support. The poor performance of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh surprised pollsters and poll analysts, and the rise of the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party and the Congress checked the Modi-Shah juggernaut. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi proved his political critics wrong by leading the party campaign to ensure a stellar performance. Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra helped him and the party connect with the general public and regain some of the lost support. But for the Congress to keep the opposition parties united under the umbrella of I.N.D.I.A bloc, it will not be an easy task as it was primarily a pre-poll electoral alliance without any common minimum programme or agenda. The Congress will be looking for opportunities to fuel the political aspirations of the TDP and JD (U) and try to woo them to return to I.N.D.I.A bloc. The BJP will be under pressure to keep allies happy and devise smarter strategies to deny the Congress any such opportunities. In Assam, the BJP and NDA are poised to improve their tally from 9 in 2019 to 11, with two regional allies, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party, Liberal (UPPL), set to win one seat each. The All India United Democratic Front chief Badruddin Ajmal suffering humiliating defeat with the Congress in Dhubri constituency indicated shifting of the minority votes to the Congress fold and rejection of religion-based politics. The AIUDF’s loss may further precipitate the defection of party leaders and workers to Congress in the coming days. At the same time, the emergence of Gaurav Gogoi as a key figure in state politics after his victory in the Jorhat constituency in upper Assam has the potential to pose a tougher electoral challenge for the BJP in the 2026 Assembly election. It will be difficult for the BJP to ignore this political reality, even though Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s aggressive campaigning prevented the Congress from increasing its tally in the state and helped the BJP increase its vote share. The stock market crashed and investors lost Rs 30 lakh crore on Results Day, reflecting investor apprehensions over the ramifications of the mandate on economic reforms. All eyes will now be on the next political moves of both the BJP and the Congress.