Amitava Mukherjee
(Amitava Mukherjee is a senior journalist and commentator)
French President Emmanuel Macron’s statements at the recently concluded European Political Community meeting in Budapest indicate that there may be severe strains in Europe’s relations with America after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. “The world is made up of herbivores and carnivores. If we decide to remain herbivores, then the carnivores will win, and we will be a market for them”, Macron said at the meeting.
The statement leaves no room to doubt whom Macron refers to as carnivores. Donald Trump tops the list of carnivores in Macron’s estimate. The French President made his position more clear on other occasions. “We are going to work for a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe...,” he emphasized.
But the road ahead may be a bit more difficult for Macron and his strongest ally in Europe, Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany. Both are leading unstable coalitions in their own countries. Moreover, Europe itself is divided. There are dissenting voices against Macron’s stand.
The possibility is that of a divided Europe, which will further reduce the continent’s capability to contribute to the progress of liberalism—liberal philosophy, art, and culture—in a sharply polarized world. Trump’s victory will encourage and further embolden a Viktor Orban in Hungary, a Marine Le Pen in France, the Freedom Party in the Netherlands, and a Giorgia Meloni in Italy. All of them are populist, illiberal personalities. Melony, the Prime Minister of Italy, represents a neo-fascist party. Victor Orban has positioned himself as the Donald Trump of Europe, while Marine Le Pen is a supporter of Vladimir Putin, who is a bête noire of the European Union.
These are certain to generate confusions. Trump has already vowed to impose 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all imports, and they include imports from Europe also. This has already raised the specter of a crash in several European capitals. Germany might be the hardest-hit nation as its car industry might experience a slump. Not just Germany. Europe is the largest exporter of cars to America. Already big car manufacturers like Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler are facing the heat. The European car industry has production centres in different locations of the continent. If America really imposes high tariffs on Continental cars, then many of these manufacturing centres might close shop, thereby leading to unemployment and social instability.
Europe is now suffering from an absence of capable leadership. European industry is also plagued by a lack of innovation and investment. This laidback approach on the part of the EU has resulted in an uncertainty over NATO’s future. In his previous stint as the US president, Trump had threatened to cut down on US responsibility in regard to NATO financing, and even some European diplomats agree that Trump was not all wrong on the issue. While the US spends 3.5-4 percent of her income on NATO’s upkeep, the whole of Europe contributes only 1.5-2 percent.
Donald Trump’s victory may land the future of the Ukraine war and the security of the eastern flank of NATO under great uncertainty. It is very likely that he may not want any more attrition with Vladimir Putin, as the US economy is also not in very good shape with the working-class people, the principal supporting population group behind Trump’s victory, suffering from inflation and rising unemployment. There is now a clear animosity between Donald Trump and the EU over NATO financing. This has spurred Trump to suggest that he would “encourage” Russia to do whatever the hell they want” to those NATO allies who fail to pay up their bills.
Will Trump really take his threat to a logical end? It is difficult to predict. But one thing is certain: Eastern European countries will henceforth remain under constant threat because it is always open to question whether NATO will be able to push back Russia sans American help. That the EU is now under an unenviable situation with its soft underbelly partially exposed is entirely due to the inability of its leadership to understand the changed American geopolitical priorities. This shift from Europe to the Asia Pacific in American perception was clearly evident during Democratic Party rules—at the time of Joe Biden and even earlier during the presidency of Barack Obama.
Although there is wide convergence of approach between America and the EU on the question of energy and green industry, the Biden administration did not shy away from attempts to undercut soils from beneath the feet of European companies in this arena. Joe Biden announced subsidies for promoting domestic green industries in his country but excluded from this facility companies from those countries that do not have free trade agreements with America, including all of Europe.
Moreover, the Biden administration made provisions for subsidies to electric vehicle manufacturing industries, provided those EVs were assembled in North America with batteries that meet certain critical mineral source requirements. The EU protested against the discrimination, but a clear-cut relief still remains way off.
Trump’s victory has thrown a grave question mark over energy cooperation between the US and the EU. To offset Europe’s dependence on the supply of Russian oil and gas, Joe Biden had ordered enhancement of America’s production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and its supply to EU countries. Due to America’s munificence, Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas supply came down by 50 percent in 2022, and in 2023 only 15 percent of Europe’s gas-based energy requirement was imported from Russia. But after that, Biden suddenly ordered a halt to production, pushing the US-EU relationship under a cloud.
In his election rallies, Donald Trump thundered that he would impose a 60 percent tariff on all imports from China. In that case, China would most likely dump her cheap products in EU markets. Then there will be a serious slump in Europe’s manufacturing economy. Some European leaders are really worried about such a possibility. But Europe is now a house divided. Trump’s ultraconservative ideology will have a good number of takers among European leaders. If things move that way, then hard times are ahead of the European Union.