Dipak Kurmi
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
The results of the American presidential election held on November 5 have sent shockwaves across the political landscape, as former President Donald Trump secured a clear victory, defying many expectations. Trump’s win is a testament to the power of his unique brand of campaigning, which focused less on traditional policy discourse and more on attacking perceived adversaries with a blend of fiction and innuendo. His lead in swing states ranged from a slim 0.87% to a solid 6.14%, with the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall,” comprising Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, crumbling. This collapse, coupled with Georgia’s return to the Republican fold and North Carolina’s retention by the GOP, led to a decisive defeat for Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, President Joe Biden.
Trump’s unorthodox style of campaigning has been both criticised and admired. Despite repeated advice from his team to focus on key issues like the economy, crime, and immigration, Trump diverged from the script, allowing his personal attacks and unfiltered rhetoric to dominate the discourse. This approach, while unconventional, found a receptive audience among many voters, particularly those disillusioned with the status quo.
Kamala Harris’s failure to address her own party’s shortcomings in a meaningful way was another key factor in the loss. When asked if she would have done anything differently, Harris offered a noncommittal response, missing an opportunity to distance herself from the unpopularity of the Biden administration. With inflation and economic concerns top of mind for many voters, her lack of nuance was seen as a misstep. Ultimately, the election highlighted the fundamental reality that a sitting president with dismal approval ratings is unlikely to win a second term, especially when the nation feels it is headed in the wrong direction.
Trump’s victory not only saw him win the popular vote, a first in his electoral history after his 2016 win against Hillary Clinton, but he also achieved a 3% margin over Harris. The Republicans’ expected gains in both Houses of Congress mean that Trump will likely have a free hand in implementing his agenda, with the US Supreme Court already under conservative control. This sets the stage for a government shaped by Trump’s personal vision, one that will likely prioritise loyalty to the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement over competence or traditional qualifications.
In terms of governance, Trump’s second term promises a revolution rather than a simple return to power. His choice of Cabinet members will likely reflect his political priorities, favouring personal loyalty over expertise. Potential appointments such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a climate change sceptic, or Elon Musk, who has suggested taking a role in overseeing government spending, indicate that the Trump administration will not shy away from bold, controversial moves. Whether these choices lead to inefficiencies or a dismantling of key government programs remains to be seen, but it is clear that Trump’s approach to governance will be far from conventional.
On the global stage, Trump’s presidency signals a continuation of some policies, while others could see significant changes. The Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Gaza/Middle East crisis will be high on his agenda. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to welcome Trump’s unwavering support for Israel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may be concerned about the future of American military assistance. Trump’s frequent praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin raises questions about the extent of US support for Ukraine, and NATO countries will need to consider how they will manage any reductions in US involvement.
For India, Trump 2.0 may represent a more pragmatic relationship, albeit one marked by caution. Trump’s warm words for Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his campaign may ease some concerns, but there are risks as well. His stance on tariffs, particularly with China, could extend to India, leading to potential trade tensions. Additionally, his approach to immigration, including possible mass deportations, could strain consular relations with India. However, the focus of his foreign policy will likely remain on his broader geopolitical goals, with less emphasis on human rights or democracy.
One of the key areas of concern for the US’ international relationships under Trump will be the fallout from his “America First” policy, which prioritises national interest over global cooperation. His administration may seek to undo many of the multilateral agreements put in place by his predecessors, particularly on climate change and trade. His withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord in his first term is a strong indication of the direction he is likely to take on environmental issues.
Trump’s political victory also raises important questions about the future of the Republican Party. If he fails to meet expectations or becomes distracted by personal vendettas, the GOP could lose control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, potentially leaving him as a “lame duck” president. However, Trump’s business background suggests that he may approach this term with a more strategic mindset, looking to leave a lasting legacy in American history. Whether he succeeds in doing so will depend largely on how effectively he can manage both his domestic and foreign policy challenges.
Trump’s win marks more than just a return to power; it represents a political revolution aimed at solidifying the right-wing agenda he championed during his first term. However, the road ahead will not be easy. Whether the second Trump presidency will continue to shape global and domestic policies in a way that aligns with his rhetoric or whether unforeseen events will alter the course of his presidency remains to be seen. As history has shown, the unpredictable forces of world events can often derail even the most carefully laid plans. For now, the world watches and waits to see what Trump’s victory will mean for the future of the United States and the world.