Udayan Hazarika
(The writer can be reached at udayanhazarika@hotmail.com)
Now that the results of the Lok Sabha elections have been declared, showing a hung Parliament, it is time for the parties to make arrangements for forming the next government. Although the term of the 17thLok Sabha is expiring on June 16, Mr. Modi has already advised the President of India to dissolve the Lok Sabha. The elections did not give any party a clear majority, meaning that parties are to seek the help of their allies to form the next government. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already announced that they will form the next government at the Centre with Mr. Modi as Prime Minister for the third time. There is also news floating around indicating that the oath-taking ceremony will take place on June 8. However, no communiqué has been issued by the government as yet on this point. Meanwhile, Mr. Modi has resigned from his office as Prime Minister, and as usual, the President of India has requested that he continue in office until the next Prime Minister takes over charge.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears to be quite confident in its ability to form the next government at the Center, without disclosing the terms and conditions or the common minimum programs that the coalition partners have agreed to support. The BJP, as the single largest party, has 240 seats, the highest that a political party has won this time. Now, the party needs another 33 seats to reach the magic number of 273—the absolute majority—to form the government. For this, the party has to depend on its election allies. Its partner TDP has 16 seats, JD (U) has 12 seats, ShivSena has 7 seats, LJP (RV) has 5 seats, JD and JD (S) have 2 seats, and other NDA partners have 12 seats, i.e., 294 seats in all. Thus, given that the election partners agree to the formation of a coalition government at the Center, there is nothing that could stop the BJP from forming the government. However, two senior partners, namely Mr. C.B. Naidu and Mr. Nitish Kumar, took sufficient time to make up their minds to participate in the BJP-led coalition government. It was only in the late hours of the day after the election results were declared, that they gave consent, but the terms and conditions laid down for this could not be easily known. This may be the reason why the BJP has delayed to stake its claim to form the government. It was only late in the night of June5that a resolution was finally adopted in a meeting where all 21 leaders, namely BJP leaders J.P. Nadda, Amit Shahand Rajnath Singh, Janata Dal (U) chief Nitish Kumar, TeleguDesam Party leader Chandrababu Naidu, Shiv Sena chief EknathShinde, Janata Dal (Secular) leader H.D. Kumaraswami etc., of the allies were present. The resolution reads, “After a very long gap of almost six decades, the people of India have chosen a powerful leader with an absolute majority for the third consecutive time. We NDA leaders unanimously choose Narendra Modi as our leader.” There is also news in the air that there may be a situation where Mr. Uddhab Thackeray, leader of the Shiv Sena (Uddhab) group, will come to back the BJP-led coalition with 9 seats to his credit, which is most likely to occur, as disclosed by a party source. Apart from this, at a later time, the BJP might also be taking up negotiations with the 10 winners of other parties and 7 independent candidates to bring them into their fold. This will further help in strengthening the party’s position while dealing with crucial issues within the coalition partners.
On the other side, the rival grouping ‘Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’, I.N.D.I.A in short, has been cool right from the beginning and finally announced their decision to sit in opposition. This is undoubtedly the right decision at this moment. The alliance figures concerning the seats that they won are not very impressive, yet with the spontaneous help of political parties like JD(U), TDP etc., there could have been a possible outcome towards forming a government. However, somehow, this did not materialize. The Congress is the single largest party in their fold with 99 seats; SP has 37 seats; TMC has 29 seats; DMK has 22 seats; other INDIA partners have 30 seats; NCP has 8; and ShivSena (Uddhab) has 9 seats. That is 233 seats in all. Thus, the alliance at the moment needs as many as 40 seats to reach the magic number, which is a difficult proposition at this moment, especially when the JD(U) and TDP have expressed their written commitment to joining the BJP-led coalition government. Even if JD (U) and TDP had joined the INDIA alliance, it would still fall short of 12 seats — for which, it will have to bank on the 10 winners from other parties and seven independent candidates (provided the BJP has not already finalized their negotiations with these 17 members). Thus, this is a situation where each and every winner of the elections is tremendously positioned to negotiate. What is more, this situation will continue to remain so as long as the coalition government is backed by parties with conditional associations. In their resolution, the INDIA grouping has made it clear that this is a mandate in defense of the Constitution of India and against price rise, unemployment, and crony capitalism. The fight against the politics of hatred, corruption, and deprivation will continue. The resolution also pledged that “we will take appropriate steps at the appropriate time to realize the people’s desire.”
From what has been discussed above, it is amply clear that the next important decision towards forming the incoming government at the Center will come from the President of India, who will call the BJP to form the next government in case the party stakes claim for the same. It is very likely that the President may also advise the party to prove their majority on the floor of the House. In that case, the formation of the Ministry may take some more time. Bihar is having its next Assembly elections in the later part of 2025. For that matter, it may be a chance for Mr. Kumar to shift to central politics. In that case, apart from asking for special status for Bihar and more employment opportunities and a national caste census, he may as well ask for a prominent berth in the Union Ministry.