WASHINGTON: Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at The Wilson Center, said on Saturday that the longer Bangladesh’s interim government stays in power, the higher the chances of the military assuming a more definitive role in the country’s politics.
His remarks come amid ongoing political unrest in Bangladesh, following the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which has left the timing of general elections uncertain.
Kugelman emphasized that the Awami League, Hasina’s party, is currently sidelined, with no representation in the interim government. However, he noted that if unrest persists, the Awami League might regain favour in future elections.
Kugelman said, “If we have a year or so go by, if the economy is not improving, if unrest continues to play out, I think the Awami League could be favoured in elections. Now, I would just say this as well when we’re talking about future political scenarios. The longer the interim government is in power, I think that raises the chance that the army will take on a more definitive role in politics. My sense is the army is not the army it was yesterday. In decades past when it was staging coups and had more of a political role, it has seemed comfortable staying behind the barracks over the last few decades, definitely since 2009 when Sheikh Hasina came in. But with this continued vacuum and with these uncertainties and with no clear path toward an election and interim government that continues to be there, the army is, I think, in a position to, it would have been, by default, playing more of a political role. And we know that there was that period, 2006, 2007, and 2008, when you had a long interim government that was heavily influenced, if not led by the military. So we also should not overlook the potential political role that could be played by the military moving forward.”
On the possibility of Sheikh Hasina’s return to politics, Kugelman expressed doubt but didn’t rule out a comeback.
“There’s been contradictory messages coming from her son, who has been her chief spokesperson since she left. First, he said she’s finished, and then more recently, he said that you know, she may want to return once election an election day is declared. I think that for the foreseeable future, it would be very difficult for her and her party to have a future. We’ve seen that there appears to be an effort to try to dismantle her party. In the days since she left, several of her ministers were arrested at the airport trying to leave. You’ve had Bangladeshi media reports citing anonymously Awami League leaders that say they’re in hiding and they fear for their lives. The Awami League was not involved in the negotiations over the interim government. There is no one from or partial to the Awami League that is a part of the interim government. So I think that for the foreseeable future, the Awami League is out of the political picture. But in my view, one can never rule out comebacks from dynastic leaders and dynastic parties. And I think this is relevant across the region, not just in Bangladesh,” the Washington DC-based foreign policy expert said.
Following her resignation amid escalating protests, Sheikh Hasina left Bangladesh on August 5. The protests, initially driven by students against the government job quota system, evolved into broader anti-government demonstrations.
Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel laureate economist, was sworn in as head of Bangladesh’s interim government on August 8, just three days after Hasina’s resignation.
Seventeen members of Bangladesh’s interim government took their oaths in Dhaka this week, with Muhammad Yunus being sworn in as the country’s chief advisor, a role equivalent to Prime Minister. The oath ceremony followed the dissolution of parliament by President Mohammed Shahabuddin, paving the way for the interim administration after Sheikh Hasina’s resignation.
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