BENGALURU: The BF.7 Omicron variant of Covid-19, although highly transmissible, is not likely to trigger a so- called 'wave' in the country, experts said.
It was also suggested that a 'surge or wave' should be redefined by India to avoid a panicky situation in the case of a rise in localised or sporadic caseloads.
Experts at Tata Medical and Diagnostics, Bengaluru explained that the variant is unlikely to pose a serious risk to the population in India. Mild upper respiratory symptoms for one or two days was said to be the worst-case scenario caused by the variant BF.7.
It was also said that the behaviour displayed by the known novel coronavirus will be similar to the new variant.
The experts further pointed out that the population in China has not been exposed to the variant nor they have been vaccinated. Any Omicron sub-lineage is expected to behave like the parent SARS-CoV-2 virus in those people, they said.
Following the surge in China, India has adopted preventive measures, like ramping up of tests and booster shots, random screening of international air travellers, and urging people to behave in a Covid-appropriate manner.
Experts said the mutation in the virus has taken it to a much milder form. Moreover, following exposure or vaccination, a large number of Indians have acquired 'hybrid' immunity. Tracking the rate of hospitalisations and deaths due to the virus would enable a more accurate picture than actually monitoring the number of cases, experts also said.
A senior epidemiologist said that it was difficult to predict exactly which local outbreak is likely to take on wave proportions. It is largely dependent on the vulnerability at the population level. He rooted for monitoring hospitalisation and death rates.
The experts also called for properly defining the term 'pandemic wave', saying the 'wave' is just a representation made graphically to show a rise in cases, with a peak and a dip after that.
Revised guidelines by Indian Council of medical Research (ICMR) state that only those showing symptoms will be tested and that may result in a rise in caseloads as people with fever or cough will test positive more than others. Testing only those that are symptomatic will show more Covid cases, but that shouldn't be taken to mean that Covid is surging everywhere, experts suggested.
Moreover, there is also the factor of variable testing, including home tests, which makes knowing the real burden of mild illness an almost impossible task as results are not always reported. In a scenario like that, where test data can present an unclear picture, data on hospitalisations and deaths will be the most reliable predictor of a surge, experts said.
Others suggest that it is better to prepare but not panic, as India is relatively safer with100% coverage of two doses of vaccine, and hybrid immunity is also developed in many of us having been already exposed to Omicron, its sub-variants and sub-lineages.
BF. 7 has been around in India since September, when the first case was reported, but no sharp increase in number of cases is evident as yet.
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