New Delhi- The head of India's main coronavirus response agency has said that districts with a large number of infections should be quarantined for another six to eight weeks to prevent the disease from spreading.
In an interview, Dr. Balram Bhargava, the head of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said that lockdown restrictions should be maintained in all districts where infection rates exceed 10% of those checked.
Three-quarters of India's 718 districts, including major cities like New Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru, have a test-positivity score of more than 10%.
Dr. Bhargava's remarks are the first time a senior government official has stated how long the country's lockdowns, which have already engulfed vast swaths of the country, will need to last.
Because of the economic implications, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has refrained from enforcing a nationwide curfew and has instead delegated authority to state governments.
To halt the spread of the virus, some states have imposed varying degrees of restrictions on economic activity and public movement, which are often reviewed and expanded on a weekly or fortnightly basis.
"Districts with a high level of positivity should be preserved (shut). We can open them if they drop to 5% from 10% (positivity rate), but that has to happen first. Clearly, that won't happen in the next six to eight weeks," Dr. Bhargava said in an interview at the ICMR's New Delhi headquarters, the country's top medical research organisation.
"If Delhi is opened tomorrow, it will be a tragedy," Dr Bhargava said, referring to the capital, one of India's hardest-hit cities, where the positivity rate peaked at around 35 percent but has since dropped to around 17 percent.
With about 350,000 cases and 4,000 deaths recorded every day, India is in the midst of a major COVID-19 outbreak. Hospitals and morgues are at capacity, medical personnel are drained, and oxygen and medications are in short supply.
According to many researchers, the total number of cases and deaths maybe five to ten times higher.
PM Modi and other top politicians have come under fire from the public for speaking at large election rallies in which no significant COVID-19 safety protocols were followed. The federal government also did little to prevent millions of devout Hindus from attending a religious festival in March.
Dr. Bhargava did not criticise the Modi government, but he did admit that the response to the crisis had been delayed.
"I think the only discontent we have was there was a slight delay accepting the 10% (recommendation), but that did happen," he said.
He said the government had been advised to lock down areas with a 10% positivity rate or higher at a meeting of the National Task Force on COVID-19 on April 15.
PM Modi, however, dissuaded states in a televised speech on April 20, saying that a lockdown should be used only as a "last resort" and that the emphasis should remain on "micro containment zones."
The Home (Interior) Ministry wrote to states on April 26 - more than 10 days after the task force meeting - requesting that they enforce strict measures for "broad containment areas" in hard-hit districts, but only for 14 days.
Requests for comment to the home and health ministries, as well as PM Modi's office, went unanswered.
According to Reuters, the head of the National Center for Disease Control told an online gathering earlier this month that strict lockdown measures will be expected in early April.
Two senior ICMR officials told Reuters that the organisation was dissatisfied with political leaders who spoke at large rallies and allowed religious gatherings, claiming that such acts were in violation of mandatory safety measures. PM Modi spoke at many political gatherings without a mask.
"Our messaging has been completely incorrect, not in sync with the situation," said one of the officials, referring to the government. "We have miserably failed."
Dr. Bhargava denied that there was any resentment within the ICMR and claimed that the agency and policymakers were on the same page. He said mass demonstrations during COVID-19 should not be tolerated in India or anywhere else, without explicitly criticising political leaders.
"It's common sense," he said.