Special Correspondent
SILCHAR: BJP-AGP alliance's return to power has more or less been well predicted by media with exceptions, however. Now that not less than 7 national media including one professional agency has predicted of clean sweep and comfortable majority by the alliance, speculations are sure to take the back seat. Still the question remains, are exit polls always well predicted to be the reality? One might recall that during the last Bihar general assembly elections, all the exit polls ruled out the third successive return of BJP-JD (U) coming back to the citadel of power.
RJD Chief Tejashwi Yadav then repented at his decision to go for alliance with Congress which was given more seats in constituencies where it had prospect to win, but in fact it was just the reverse. RJD alone could mop up the required majorty on its own to form the government. It was an over assessment of Congress by RJD to win seats, ignoring the mood and trends of the time. This was also the fault-line with all exit polls.
Who will be repentant in Assam, Congress or AIUDF? Congress, the most dominant force in the state during the last 4 decades, is virtually fighting for survival. It has to ride on the back of others to Cross the Rubicon as is seen in all the other four poll bound states of West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. In Puducherry, its once bastion, has also been predicted to slip from its hands. AIUDF which is yet to taste the power to rule Assam is not to have lost anything, as of now. Badaruddin Ajmal, the architect of AIUDF, is more focussed on consolidation of minority dominated constituencies. If the alliance does not work, he might weigh other options for 2026.
But exit polls do not go wrong all the time. BJP alliance is more or less back to power at Dispur, but with reduced margin. One thing is certain Congress-AIUDF tie up has affected the prospect of BJP-AGP alliance reaching the much projected 100 plus. In the context of Barak Valley, the ground reports from all the 15 assembly constituencies indicate AIUDF is going to be gainer from the grand alliance or mahajote, winning 5 seats, one more than Congress. BJP alliance has to be content with 7 seats only, two less than its tally of 2016.
The national and state leaders of BJP always count Barak Valley as the strongest base of the party. Why this is no more needs analysis of facts and factors. Undeniably, Sarbananda Sonowal, remains the sheet anchor of BJP and Himanta Biswa Sarma the strategist to lead the party and win people's support. The performance and achievements of BJP alliance are the greatest winnable factor notwithstanding internal intrigues and sabotage by over ambitious members of the saffron brigade. And, in the final analysis, BJP-AGP alliance is back to power to rule the state for another 5 years. Voters have already decided and sealed the fate of candidates that will be open just 36 hours from now.