STAFF REPORTER GUWAHATI: Neither the BJP-led Mitrajoot, nor the Congress-led Mahajoot is a happy-go-lucky political formation in this Assembly poll in the State. Though both the political formations claiming to win 100+…, yet the situation on the ground is something different.
The results of the 2016 Assembly poll in the State throw much light on the electoral battle in the present realigned political alliances in the State. [Read Latest Assam Election News]
In 2016, the BJP-led alliance had AGP, BPF and a few smaller regional parties with it. On the contrary, the Congress and the AIUDF did fight that poll separately. In some LACs, the Congress, AIUDF and the BJP-AGP alliance were logged in triangular fight. In most of such contests, the BJP-AGP alliance reaped the benefits.
With the Congress and the AIUDF getting into a huddle and the Left parties backing them, the situation is quite different in this election. The BPF in the Mahajoot is an added advantage for it. The Raijor Dal and the Assam Jatiya Parishad together is a neutral factor that, in all likelihood, may cut the votes of the BJP-AGP combine.
Given the political alignment in the State, neck-to-neck contests between the Mitrajoot and the Mahajoot are likely in a number of constituencies.
The share of votes polled by various parties in the State in 2016 also throws much light on the would-be outcome of this Assembly election. In the 2016 Assembly poll, while the Congress got 30.9 per cent votes, AIUDF got 13 per cent, BJP got 29.5 per cent, AGP got 8 per cent and the BPF got 3.9 per cent.
When the shares of votes of the BJP, AGP and the BPF are added, the total share stands at 41.5 per cent. On the contrary, when the shares of votes of the Congress and the AIUDF are added, it comes to 43.9 per cent.
Out of the 47 seats of Upper Assam that went to poll in the first phase in this election, the BJP won 27, AGP won 8, Congress won 9, AIUDF won 2 and 1 seat went to an Independent candidate in 2016.
In the 39 seats that went to poll in the second phase this year, the BJP won 22 seats, the Congress won 6, AIUDF 5, AGP 2 and the BPF won 4 in 2016.
In the 40 seats going to poll in the third phase in this poll, the BJP won 11 seats, Congress won 11, AIUDF 6, AGP 4 and the BPF 8 in 2016.
In 2016, the BJP won 60 seats, Congress won 26, AGP 14, AIUDF 13, BPF 12 and 1 seat went to an Independent candidate.
The Congress-AIUDF alliance may give an edge to the Mahajoot, but friendly contests in a few constituencies between the two parties may give the ruling alliance the advantage.
Another advantage of the Congress-led alliance is that it has roped in former BJP ally BPF. However, if the Hagrama Mohilary-led BPF can retain all the 12 BTR (Bodoland Territorial Region) seats this time around is an open question as the UPPL is there to strike a balance.