Can ‘INDIA’ alliance convince voters?

The Opposition deserves recognition for boldly adopting the moniker ‘I.N.D.I.A.’ with the letter ‘D’ representing ‘developmental’ nestled in the middle. This move unmistakably signifies their readiness to take on the BJP in the arenas of nationalism and progress. However, mere courage will not suffice; the real test lies in their ability to persuade voters that they are the superior choice in both aspects. The alliance must now demonstrate how it plans to excel in these domains.

With the 2024 campaign underway, “INDIA” (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) has strategically placed these two emotive issues at the forefront. By doing so, they appear ready to confront ‘Vikas Purush’ Narendra Modi on his own terms. Although the specifics of their plan have not surfaced yet, it is expected to be embedded within the proposed common minimum programme (CMP). The CMP will likely reflect their approach to tackling Modi’s strongholds and present an alternative vision for the country’s development and inclusivity.

Up until this point, the Opposition’s distinction from the NDA has primarily revolved around labelling the latter as majoritarian, susceptible to power abuse, and an opponent of free speech. However, these abstract accusations fail to strike a chord with undecided voters. The victory in Karnataka by the Congress was not attributed to lofty ideals; instead, it stemmed from a significant wave of anti-incumbency (attributed to corruption). In essence, concrete issues like corruption had a more tangible impact on the electorate’s decision-making process than vague criticisms.

The anti-BJP alliance holds an advantageous position due to voter fatigue after a decade of NDA rule and the inevitable discrepancy between expectations and actual achievements. However, the alliance lacks a concentrated negative sentiment towards the Modi government, which means its success can only be achieved by convincing voters that it can outperform the current administration. One crucial step is to devise a more impactful tagline. ‘Jeetenge Bharat’ conveys very little substance compared to ‘Viksit Bharat,’ which conveys a vision of a developed India. A compelling and clear tagline can significantly enhance the alliance’s message and resonate better with the electorate.

In India’s political history, coalition governments have been witnessed before, but they have always had a centre of gravity, usually a national party with significant numbers that either led or anchored the coalition. However, this current alliance marks a novel political formation as it lacks such a central force. Therefore, it becomes imperative for this alliance to showcase its credentials to the voters well in advance of the elections. This unique setup demands a thorough introduction and demonstration of its capabilities to gain the trust and support of the electorate.

Considering the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) will inevitably bring forth various talking points, it is likely to avoid taking definitive positions on contentious matters. Issues like the Uniform Civil Code, the abrogation of Article 370, the dilution of the Triple Talaq Law, the Citizenship Amendment Act, and the system of judicial appointments might not receive clear-cut stances in the CMP. Instead, the alliance may adopt a more cautious approach, steering clear of taking firm stands on these sensitive topics to maintain a delicate balance among its diverse constituents.

However, it cannot evade addressing the central theme of development. The alliance will likely have to confront the Modi government’s initiatives related to financial inclusion and tax reforms. Will they acknowledge and appreciate the efforts put into Jan Dhan Yojana, UPI, the India Stack, and the India chain, along with the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and transparent taxation platform? Moreover, will the alliance express support for the NDA’s flagship programmes such as Digital India, the National Semiconductor Mission, the Circular Economy, Swachch Bharat, e-NAM, the Government e-Marketplace, Smart Cities, and Gati Shakti? The electorate will be keen to know if they plan to continue the Ujwala, Awas Yojana, and Jal Jeewan programmes, as these initiatives have significant implications for the nation’s development and progress.

Amidst the promises of better implementation of programmes, the voters are left wondering if there is anything the Opposition alliance intends to roll back. On the front lines of foreign policy, what changes can be expected? How will the taxpayer be affected by their proposed policies? It is insufficient for the alliance to simply state that they will do things better; the past decade has seen transformative changes in various aspects. The onus lies on the Opposition alliance to elucidate the transformations they envision bringing and move beyond merely offering freebies, as often seen from parties like the Congress and AAP. The voters deserve a comprehensive explanation of their proposed agenda and how it will shape the nation’s future.

For the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) to be established, it is essential to ensure that all alliance partners are in agreement. Consider the matter of labour reforms, where the subject falls under concurrent jurisdiction. Consequently, it becomes the responsibility of state governments to decide on deregulating labour markets in line with the four labour codes passed by the Central Government. Consensus among the coalition members is crucial to navigating these complex issues and effectively addressing matters that come under the purview of both the Centre and the states.

In April 2023, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin made an announcement stating that he had suspended the implementation of labour reforms, specifically the Factories Amendment Bill. Similarly, the Congress-led government in Karnataka has also committed to reversing the reforms introduced by the BJP. In contrast, the labour reforms initiated by the BJP in Rajasthan back in 2014 are still in effect and remain a part of the statute books. These reforms have proven to be advantageous, leading to substantial improvements in employment rates, wages, and factory output. The differing approaches taken by these states highlight the varying perspectives on labour reforms within the political landscape.

Allowing individual state governments to decide on labour reforms would suggest that the Opposition is lacking a unified direction. Moreover, if India aims to position itself in the China-plus-one sphere and become a prominent global manufacturing hub, can the Opposition afford to adopt a contradictory stance? The recent backpedalling by Tamil Nadu and Karnataka on labour reforms is perceived as a setback for major global tech companies planning to expand or establish manufacturing facilities in southern India. The lack of a cohesive approach from the Opposition may deter investment and hinder India’s potential to attract crucial foreign investments in the manufacturing sector.

The Old Pension Scheme (OPS) remains a contentious topic and a point of disagreement among political parties. Surprisingly, the Congress, which did not object to the National Pension Scheme (NPS) during its ten-year tenure in office from 2004 to 2014, has now taken a complete U-turn and resolved to restore the OPS in all Congress-governed states. Similarly, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has also decided to follow suit and reinstate the OPS in the states it governs. This shift in stance by both the Congress and AAP has sparked debate and raised questions about the rationale behind their change in perspective on the pension scheme.

The JD (U), a key proponent of Opposition unity, staunchly opposes the revival of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) in Bihar. In contrast, states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are yet to take a firm stance as they grapple with the uncertainty surrounding funding for such a move. The major concern lies in the escalating pension liabilities, which have outpaced the states’ own tax revenues at a considerably faster rate. As a result, these states are hesitant to commit to reinstating the OPS without a clear understanding of how they will manage the financial burden associated with increased pension commitments. The complex financial implications have left them in a state of indecision, awaiting a viable solution to address the looming pension challenges.

Agriculture is a subject of divergent opinions and approaches among different states in India. While some states advocate for free trade in agricultural produce, others adopt a more cautious approach. Maharashtra, Bihar, Kerala, and Punjab each follow their own unique models with varying degrees of government intervention in the farm sector. The states’ contrasting agricultural policies reflect their distinct perspectives on how to best address the challenges and opportunities in the agriculture domain. As a result, the agricultural landscape in India showcases a diverse range of strategies and practises, tailored to suit the specific needs and conditions of each state.

The Common Minimum Programme (CMP) is merely the initial hurdle for the newly formed alliance, and the most intricate task that follows is seat-sharing among the coalition partners. However, the people of India are eagerly curious to understand the true meaning behind the acronym I.N.D.I.A. The alliance needs to unveil its core principles, values, and vision to the public, providing clarity on what it stands for and the principles that will guide its actions. Only then can it gain the trust and support of the citizens, who are keen to comprehend the alliance’s agenda and aspirations for the nation.