High stakes battle

The national as well as regional parties have high stakes in the elections to the assemblies of four states -Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala and the Union Territory of Puducherry. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry will be going for single phase voting on April 6 while there will be three-phase polling in Assam and eight-phase polling in West Bengal. With the Model Code of Conduct coming into force with immediate effect, the ruling parties in each of the poll-bound states as well as the Central government will not be able to make any new announcement till the election process for all the five assemblies are over. This means some of the burning issues in Assam like expansion of the list of Scheduled Tribes, announcement of the rules for the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, implementation of the recommendation of the High Level Committee on Clause 6 will be dragging on for more time. The issues are going to remain as poll planks for Assembly polls and the electioneering is going to indicate how the electors weigh the issues of implementation of the core clauses of the Assam Accord and the issue of CAA raked up by the opposition parties against the development planks of the ruling coalition. The announcement of the dates will prompt the two major stakeholders in Assam- the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition Congress to conclude seat sharing talks with their respective allies. Political turncoats hog the limelight after finalization of seat sharing of political alliances result in denial of some sitting or tickets aspirants who shift loyalties to join the opposite camp after being denied party tickets. With not much time left for the first phase of polling on March 6 in Assam, the ruling as well as opposition parties are in a tricky situation over deciding the seat sharing formula with allies. Battle lines are not yet drawn as the final picture of seat sharing of two new regional parties Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal is also not clear. The Congress-led grand alliance has been appealing to the two new regional parties to join the alliance to avoid split in non-BJP votes which, however, has been rejected both by the AJP and the Raijor Dal. It remains to be seen if any tactical alliance between the Congress-led alliance and the AJP-Raijor Dal alliance by way of fielding weak candidates in some seats. The seat-sharing talks between the BJP and its major ally Asom Gana Parishad are going to be tough one but hard realities for both the major constituents of the ruling coalition is that they do not have much time left for finalizing the seats and the candidates. In Assam, the polling will be completed well ahead of Rongali Bihu festivities with the third and the final phase of polling fixed on April 6. Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora said that the commission had taken care of the festivals and final examinations of the Central Bureau of Secondary Education before finalising poll dates. The Bihu festivities, therefore, are not going to be overshadowed by hullabaloo of electioneering and this will also allow students to prepare for their final examinations without much disturbance. Parties and candidates, except in West Bengal will have to keep their fingers crossed for nearly four weeks after the polling is over as counting of votes will be taken up in all the four states and the union territory on May 2 after last phase of polling is completed in West Bengal. Among the five assemblies, the BJP has the highest stakes in Assam where it is looking for another term and in West Bengal where it is seeking to wrest power and instal the first BJP government by dethroning the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC). Exodus of a number of TMC leaders to the BJP has made the battle tougher for the incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The Left parties and the Congress are set to face off in Kerala but tied up in West Bengal against both the BJP and the TMC. In Tamil Nadu, the Assembly poll is going to be keen watched as the traditional rivals Dravida Munnetra Kazagham and the All India Dravida Munterra Kazagham will be engaged in a keen contest and the outcomes will have ramifications for both the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and Congress-led United Progressive Alliance. The assembly polls in Tamil Nadu are also going to decide the emergence of new stalwarts in the state as it is going to be the first poll after the death of two political stalwarts M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa who played crucial roles in deciding the shape of political alliance and government formation at the Centre for decades. Spin doctors and psephologists will be on their toes over the next two months.