How can Bangladesh and Myanmar solve the Rohingya crisis holistically?

Rohingyas are now a burden for Bangladesh. They are involved in various misdeeds.

Whether travelling abroad on a Bangladeshi passport with Bangladeshis, becoming a voter, collecting smart cards, or getting involved in various crimes (murder, vandalism, drug trade, etc.), there are no crimes that Rohingyas are not doing. Added to this is the war game of the Myanmar military junta. All in all, the Rohingya problem has become a thorn in the neck for Bangladesh.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has repeatedly asked for the cooperation of the international community, including the United Nations, but has not gotten any benefit. The latest appeal is to superpower France. This is the only problem in Bangladesh. The international community seems to have no responsibility. The Arakan Army is the main group of separatists operating in Rakhine state inside Myanmar. The Arakan Army’s position in recent Rakhine State has been considerably strengthened. The Arakan Army has grown in influence and support among the Rakhine population there. Militarily and politically, they have become quite strong there.

In this reality, the government has launched a strong campaign against the Arakan Army with the aim of establishing control in that state. At this time, there was shelling inside Bangladesh, and there were also casualties. Violation of airspace, including shelling of neighbouring countries while conducting operations against insurgents in one’s own country, is unacceptable. But they have done this to directly provoke Bangladesh; it is not yet clear to us.

There are some things to keep in mind when conducting an operation at the international border. Because it involves the question of the independence and sovereignty of other countries and should be respected. But in the way Myanmar is conducting operations in Rakhine State, they show little respect and do not seem to take international norms into account. Given the nature of their operations, it is natural to think that perhaps they are not giving much importance to the capabilities of Bangladesh. They are probably testing the attitude of Bangladesh by carrying out this operation.

They may want to understand what kind of reaction Bangladesh shows or can show if something big happens in the future. The Arakan Army is the military wing of the United League of Arakan. In 2009, they began their operations in Kachin State and received training from the Kachin Independence Army there. Then they gradually intensified their freedom movement. They started their operations in Rakhine State, establishing a base in the Paletwa region of Myanmar’s Indo-Bangladesh border. The force, under the command of Major General Tuan Mart Nyang, has recently increased its capabilities. This force has been carrying out military operations to promote the Rakhine people’s right to self-determination and the formation of an independent and sovereign Rakhine state. As the Arakan Army has recently strengthened its position militarily and politically in Rakhine State and built a foothold among the people, Myanmar’s military authorities have launched an all-out offensive against them.

After Myanmar’s military overthrew Suu Kyi’s government and seized power on February 1, 2021, separatist groups increased their operations and activities. They are having success fighting against the army. The Kachin Independent Army (KIA) has already managed to capture several installations. The Karen National Union is fighting for the self-determination of the Karen people. Their position in the Karen region is stronger than ever. The army lost their position.

The China Land Defense Force (CDF) and the China National Defense Force (CNDF) have recently come to an agreement with the larger organisation, the China National Army. It appears that various separatist groups have strengthened cooperation among themselves to defeat them. At the same time, the common people in Myanmar, who are against the military regime, are also fighting against the government by joining the activities of various rebel and separatist groups.

But so far, no situation has arisen to suggest that the Tatmadaw has lost much of its control over Myanmar. As we have seen, Myanmar’s people have mounted a massive resistance after a military coup seized power and jailed elected leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi. Bloody protests took place in city after city. The army took the path of suppressing the protest with a strong hand. In such a situation, they have formed the People’s Defense Force, or PDF, and are trying to resist the army through it.

They are conducting their activities in different parts of the country. This is called the initial phase of the civil war. But the success rate of PDF is not very high. Because they could not maintain their unity in different regions of the country. At the same time, there is a shortage of weapons and equipment, even if there is manpower or supporters. All in all, it can be said that the current situation in Myanmar has not yet completely turned into a civil war. Military rule is nothing new to the people of Myanmar. It is true that the people there have been under military rule for a long time. But after the establishment of the government elected through free elections, the light of democracy began to enter. After a long time, the people there began to taste democracy and civil liberties. One thing that happened very quickly during democratic rule was the development of civil society.

A civil society developed there in a very short time. Communication with the outside world increases. This achievement in a short period of democratic governance is remarkable. In such a situation, when the Myanmar army seized power again, the people there did not accept it. Despite the heavy loss of life and property, they continued to resist military rule. Continually, Myanmar’s economic situation is weak and fragile. But so far, the economy has not collapsed. They are trying to overcome the pressure that the country’s economy came under during the COVID.

After the imposition of military rule, various restrictions and sanctions have been imposed at the international level, making it difficult for them to sustain the collapse of the economy. But it should be remembered that Myanmar is a rich country. There are many resources needed, with which they can run on their own. The new restrictions imposed on Myanmar are nothing new for the country. Prior to this, they had spent four decades under international sanctions. They have the experience of knowing how to survive in such situations.

Based on this, they are trying to deal with the current situation. Taking the Russia-Ukraine war situation into consideration, the World Bank forecast shows that growth in Myanmar will be 3 per cent next year. Although Myanmar is under some pressure with energy and food, it is not facing a major economic threat. Since the country has not collapsed economically, there is no chance of becoming an economic refugee. It doesn‘t look like that will happen anytime soon. The Arakan Army has also taken a strong stand.

They have established control over many areas there. There are also territories where they run their own administration and collect taxes. They are trying to convey that they are not only strong domestically, but now they are trying to gain international recognition as well. They are a force and organization in this region, without whom no problem can be solved. The question is: what will Bangladesh do in this situation? The answer is that Bangladesh has no chance of reconciliation with any such separatist group. China, Russia, and India are providing support and assistance to the Myanmar government. The position of these countries has not changed even after the army seized power after overthrowing the democratic government. The three countries have deep strategic interests in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. A deep-sea port has been built under China’s special economic zone at Kyaukphyu in Rakhine state. They are building an oil refinery there.

These ports and refineries are very important for China’s energy security. Because of the use of this port, China will be able to keep its fuel supply line running even if the Strait of Malacca is closed in a war situation. Through this, the supply of oil, gas, and LNG can be ensured. From here, there will be a direct railway line with China’s Yunnan province. On the other hand, India has taken the initiative to rebuild and use the damaged Seatway port during the Second World War.

From here, the Kaladan Multimodal Highway will provide access to the northeastern states of India. The Kaladan Link Highway is very important for India. Russia has economic and military interests there. They are going to make a special economic zone there. Rakhine State is a strategically important region. Access to the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. One of the six corridors of China’s BRI will pass through this state.

Since Rakhine State is very attractive for these three countries, Bangladesh should understand its strategic importance and proceed with this in mind. Bangladesh Bandhu called the representatives of some countries to explain the current situation and ask for help. This does not seem to yield very positive results. When the Rohingya refugee crisis unfolded, we showed weakness diplomatically. Neither ASEAN nor SAARC stood by us. If any kind of pressure is to be put on Myanmar, it should be done through China, India, and Russia.

It is through them that Myanmar should send a message that what they are doing on the Bangladesh border is not acceptable. Nothing else will do much without going to these three countries. If the situation is very bad, we have to go to the Security Council, including the United Nations. China and Russia have veto power there. The reality is that we cannot engage in any kind of conflict and diplomatically find a peaceful solution to this crisis.