Impending climate disasters

 As the countdown for the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) at the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai begins, the United Nations has pressed the alarm bells on the widening climate ambition gap resulting from the continuous rise in emission levels. The latest “Emission Gap Report 2023” from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has revealed a worrying projection that if mitigation efforts implied by current policies are continued at today’s levels, global warming will only be limited to 3°C above pre-industrial levels in this century, against the target of 1.5°C above pre-industry levels. Demands for the burning of more fossil fuels cannot be expected to decline if the notion of development does not change for people across the globe. The report finds that the gap between the pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement is widening, which the nations must take note of and build consensus on cutting down emissions aggressively. Global GHG emissions increased by 1.2 percent from 2021 to 2022 to reach a new record of 57.4 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e), it adds. A key finding of the UNEP report is that globally, the 10 percent of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48 percent) of emissions, with two-thirds of this group living in developed countries. The bottom 50 percent of the world population contributed only 12 percent of total emissions. Evidently, the onus lies on the developed countries to drastically cut down emissions to save the planet and create a sustainable world for future generations. The argument, however, must not be misinterpreted as saying that it is okay for developing and underdeveloped countries to raise the level of emissions to close the gap with the developed world. Awareness among people needs to be raised to choose between the western construct of development of building large infrastructure, destroying forests and river ecosystems, and acquiring large properties, which lead to an exponential rise in energy consumption, and the traditional way of life of indigenous communities living in developing and underdeveloped countries that limit carbon emissions and practice the wise use of natural resources to co-exist with nature. Examples of an environment-friendly lifestyle are plentiful among indigenous communities in India’s northeast region. Monpas in Aruanchal Pradesh, for example, have been using the power of running water streams to grind their food grains, and such practice remains sustainable only when it continues to be practiced collectively by villagers. When the use of a traditional community water grinder that requires no energy is replaced with the aspiration of owning an individual mixer grinder that makes life easier, it increases electricity demand, which in turn contributes to more carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning to generate electricity. The chicken and egg dilemma has gripped the development versus environment conservation debate, and marketing companies have taken advantage of pushing their products with the narrative that possession of those are markers of development and a comfortable life. When temperatures have risen to an unbearable level, life no longer remains comfortable, even when people continue to possess such products, the manufacturing of which leads to more carbon emissions. The report emphasises that predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions still must fall by 28 percent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42 percent for the 1.5°C pathway. It underscored the need for all nations to accelerate economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations and for countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions to take more ambitious action and support developing nations to help them pursue low-emissions development growth. Rather than looking at emerging and developing economies as large markets to sell products manufactured in industrialised and developed economies, the developed countries must support more scientific research in developing and underdeveloped countries for the development of renewable energy to completely phase out coal production and use. However, if the notion of development does not change, then governments in these countries will be compelled to follow the same models of development pursued in developed countries to fulfil the aspirations of the people to get elected and to remain in power for a longer period of time.The report points out that until the beginning of October this year, 86 days were recorded with temperatures over 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. September was the hottest recorded month ever, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, and if countries continue to look the other way, even these new records are also going to be erased soon with new records of unprecedented temperatures for a longer period in the coming decades. A turnaround in the situation is not possible if people in developing countries continue to look at developed countries in search of the yardstick of development. They must be aware of the pitfalls of the western model of development to save the planet from impending climate disasters.