India-Canada stand-off: An analysis

Brig. (retd) R. Borthakur

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s statement at the Canadian Parliament on September 18, 2023, that his country has a ‘credible allegation’ about India’s involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, on June 18, 2023, has impacted the relationship between the two democracies.

India has reacted strongly to the ‘baseless allegation’ while Canada said that the allegation was based on the intelligence acquired by ‘Five Eye”, an intelligence sharing arrangement of five countries to include Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the USA, and Britain. This intelligence-sharing arrangement was formalised in 1946, after the end of the Second World War, to counter the Cold War Soviet threat.

The Canadian Government asserts that it possesses ‘both human and signal intelligence’ which probably implies that Indian diplomatic staff were trailed and eavesdropped. This is an act against the Vienna Convention, which provides certain diplomatic immunity. However, if it is proved that India’s intelligence was involved in the killing of Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh separatist leader, then India’s image as a democratic country with rule-based order is likely to be impacted.

While the Khalistan issue is almost dead in India, a few Sikh-based organisations, particularly in the USA, Canada, and Britain, are using drug money as well as covert support from the Pakistan Intelligence Agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to keep the movement alive. Some of these countries, for their political compulsions, are soft on Sikh separatists.

In the past, India had given enough evidence of the criminal activities of Khalistan to Canada. Canada has not reacted to the dossiers of 21 terrorists handed over by India. Canada had earlier refused to respond to an Interpol Red Corner notice against Nijjar. Thus, Canada, fully aware of the anti-India activities being carried out on their soil, has been turning a blind eye in the name of ‘Free Speech’.

In fact, Canada has been a hotbed of Khalistan activities since the 1980s. Many violent activities have been carried out by the Sikh separatists, the most prominent one being the blowing up of the Air India plane Kanishka on June 23 with 285 passengers on board. The Canadian Government, which carried out the investigation, has not been able to take the investigation to a logical conclusion even after 35 years. Emboldened by the soft stance of the present Canadian Government, the pro-Khalistan groups continue to intimidate the Hindus and carry out Khalistan propaganda, and they have also ensured that the pro-Indian Sikhs were thrown out of the big gurudwaras of Canada by muscle and money power.

A country that claims to be the champion of human rights should have been more careful while making an allegation against India. This entire issue could have been handled diplomatically and tactfully. This incident has exposed Canada’s blatant hypocrisy and disregard for international norms.

There are some indications that it was the USA that prompted Canada to make this allegation to put pressure on Modi to align with the US as per their policy. The term used by some Western media to describe Nijjar as a ‘temple leader’, tireless campaigner, and fatherly figure says how far the western media has gone to put up a case for Nijjar’s sainthood. On the contrary, Indian intelligence agencies have confirmed information that he received arms training in Pakistan in 2012, besides being involved in many other anti-India activities.

Pakistan has tried to capitalise on the standoff between India and Canada. Pakistan’s foreign office spokesperson commented that “the Indian network of extrajudicial killings has now gone global’’. Pakistan, which has been actively supporting Khalistan activities, will exploit the present standoff between India and Canada.

Ironically, the flame of independent Khalistan continues to burn in a foreign country long after it has flickered out in India. 75% of the world’s Sikhs live in Punjab. PEW research in 2020 has found that there is near-universal opposition to separatism in India. Sikhs consider themselves proud Indians. The wounds of suffering suffered by the Sikhs in the 1980s have healed to a great extent. Sri Harmandir Sahib, Gurudwara, the temporal head of Sikh religious activities, in a recent statement, condemned the terrorism activities of Babbar Khalsa and other organisations to defame India; moreover, they have urged all international Gurudwaras to stop supporting any form of anti-India activities. It is pertinent to note that even in Canada, which has more than 250 Gurudwaras, only 8 of them are under pro-Khalistan supporters’ control.

The soft peddling by Canada, which has not acted on many Khalistan activists despite strong evidence given by India, has brought sharp divisions between the two nations. Why is Prime Minister Trudeau soft on Khalistan? Is it because of his political ambition? He runs a minority government with the support of Sikhs. With his approval rating down, he has every chance of losing the election to be held in early 2025. Hence, he needs the support of the Sikhs, who constitute about 770000 (2.1% of the total Canadian population of 3.82 crores). Out of the total seats of 338 in the House of Commons, the Sikh-led National Democratic Party has 25 seats and supports Trudeau’s Liberal Party, which has 158 members. The opposition conservative party has 117 seats.

The continued face-off will likely affect trade, defence, and immigration ties between the two countries. India’s bilateral trade in goods reached nearly 9 billion US dollars in 2022, a substantial 57% increase over the previous years. Major imports from Canada include fertilisers and energy products like coal, coke, etc., while India exports consumer goods, garments, engineering products such as auto parts, electronic items, etc. Canada is India’s 17th largest foreign investor, having invested more than 3.6 billion dollars since 2000. Canadian portfolio investors have invested billions of dollars in India’s stock. With the present standoff, the major causality will be the ongoing negotiations for EPTA (Early Progress on Trade Agreement), which have been put on hold. This could have boosted trade to 6.5 billion US dollars in the immediate future.

Regarding Indian students studying in Canada, till 2015, Canada had issued 9,97,125 study permits to Indian students. This number has been increasing every year. In 2023, 1,07,855 students were allowed to study in Canada. India is the number one source of immigrants and foreign students.

However, the Canadian Prime Minister’s statement last week that his country is very serious about building closer ties with India indicates that Canada has dialled down its accusation against India, which is a very welcome sign. At the same time, Canada needs to ensure that it takes action against anti-India elements for whom India has provided irrefutable evidence. A good relationship between the two democracies is a must to counter Communist China and deal with other important ongoing issues.