India’s best bet in Pakistan

India is always the whipping boy of a section of the ‘establishment’ in Pakistan. Fatima Jinnah was called an ‘agent’ of India. After her, it was the turn of Ayub Khan. He was vilified as an Indian agent, although he had fought a war with India in 1965. Yahiya Khan also could not escape the hammer. He was also blacklisted as an Indian agent because he had lost the 1971 war, which led to the dismemberment of Pakistan. Pervez Musharaff and Nawaz Shariff also had to suffer the same engineered ignominy. Influential sections of the ‘establishment’ always tried to stoke public sentiments against fallen heroes.

Now, the Pakistan army, the most important component of this ‘establishment,” has suffered a serious schism on the question of support for or opposition to Imran Khan. It is no wonder that sections of the bureaucratic and judicial elite, which on earlier occasions vilified Ayub Khan,Yahya Khan, and Pervez Musharraf, are standing by the side of Imran Khan. However, knowledgeable circles in Pakistan aver that Imran and his ‘Pirni’ wife, Bushra Bibi, have made deep inroads into various levels of the army. The drama is now in its first stage. If there is a rebellion inside the Pakistani army in the future, then it is a bad omen for the world.

But why should the world be concerned about a probable rebellion in the Pakistani army? The reason lies in the dark probability of nuclear arsenals falling into the hands of Islamic terrorists.

So given the spectre, the world, and particularly India, should look for unity and cohesiveness in the Pakistani army because the two other important institutions—the executive and the judiciary—are deeply fractured in an atmosphere where Pakistan is fast moving to the unenviable status of a failed state. The army should also be held responsible for such a situation, but given the present circumstances, all eyes are now riveted on the ‘deep state’ for the security of nuclear weapons.

The army has taken precautions. Around 8,000 personnel are employed to guard several nuclear installations. Through a rigorous selection process, these personnel are selected mostly from the Pakistani state of Punjab because the Punjabi section of the Pakistan army is thought to be least exposed to radical Islamist ideas. There are multi-layered physical protections for the installations. Then production and refurbishment locations are kept separate from storage sites. Finally, there are dummy locations for missiles to hoodwink the Islamic terrorists.

But there are plenty of loopholes too. Out of fear of an overrun by India, Pakistan has built up most of its nuclear installations in the north and west of the country, many of which are Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al-Qaida-dominated areas. Then there is the possibility of internal sabotage. Don’t forget the case of Abdul Qader Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb, who was arrested in 2004 for masterminding the largest nuclear proliferation network in history. Two other senior scientists from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmud and Chaudhry Abdul Majeed, travelled to Afghanistan in 2000 and again shortly before 9/11 to meet Usama bin Laden. Their endeavour is self-explanatory.

So the security system is porous. Islamic terrorists know it. Any schism within the army will embolden the terrorists. Already, they have made several attempts to gain control of nuclear establishments. They have tried to capture the nuclear missile storage site at Sargodha. Then a suicide bomber attacked Pakistan’s nuclear airbase at Kamra. And again, suicide bombers of the TTP have blown up several entry points to one of Pakistan’s main nuclear weapon assembly sites at the Wah cantonment.

Right now, this is the gravest danger that the world faces from Pakistan. Neither Imran Khan, the Pakistan People’s Party, nor any other institution has the capability to stave off the threat. Only the army can do it. If the army itself is divided, then there is the possibility that one disgruntled section might hand over the keys to nuclear bases to the terrorists.

Now let us consider the condition of the army.

Asim Munir, the newly appointed army chief, is a Sunni. There is a lurking doubt among a section of the army officers as to to what extent Munir can go against the Sunni-dominated TTP, the principal Islamist terrorist group in Pakistan. With this end in view, Qamar Javed Bajwa, the former army chief, had appointed Lt. Gen. Azhar Abbas, a Shia, as the Chief of General Staff (CGS) with the aim of handing over to the latter the post of army chief in the future so that full-scale army operations could be carried out against the Sunni-dominated TTP at a proper time under Abbas’ direct supervision. But this created deep fissures within the army.

Over the years, Imran Khan has made deep inroads among the army’s top brass, and his wife, Bushra Bibi, the Pirni (soothsayer), has cultivated wives of top-level army officers, bureaucrats, and judicial functionaries. It is said that Imran has thousands of sympathisers within the army. This became apparent on May 9, when Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) supporters vandalised the residence of Lahore Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Salman Fayyaz Ghani. Surprisingly, security in and around the Corps Commander’s house was completely lax. It may not be impertinent to point out that Ghani’s wife is rumoured to belong to that circle of top government functionaries’ wives who support Imran Khan.

Under such circumstances, trying Imran Khan under the Army Act may result in chain reactions affecting the army. Its effects may not be felt right now. But social media circles, allegedly patronised by PTI sympathisers, are floating different rumours. According to this category of grapevine, Lt. Gen. Sahir Shamshad Mirza, the current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, may try to dislodge Asim Munir from the post of army chief.

However, instability in the Pakistani army is unwelcome on at least one count: for the safety of the country’s nuclear arsenals.