New Great Game in the South Pacific

Kisalay Chakrabarty

(ckisalay94@gmail.com)

Over the last couple of decades, China has been consistently building its influence in the South Pacific through regional forums, such as the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and the China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum (EDCF). Many perceive this expansionism to be growing at a much faster rate than what could be considered a natural reflection of China's growing economic and geopolitical pull. Recently, China and the Solomon Islands signed a security framework agreement on the backdrop of the second QUAD Summit held in Tokyo, Japan. The draft agreement focuses on boosting the latter's national security capacity. It also includes cooperation in humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and efforts to maintain social order, among other areas. With the US-led Western block and Beijing vying for influence in South Pacific, the stage is set for the emergence of a new Great Game; this time the bone of contention would be the South Pacific.

As a "European artefact", the 'South Pacific' was from the outset intertwined with imperial rivalry and geopolitical competition, as evidenced in the scramble for Pacific colonies in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and the Pacific War of the 1940s. The South Pacific sits at the 'fulcrum' of the Pacific rebalancing - a largely stable region with a relatively small population and abundant resources. It is at the crossroads of vibrant and growing maritime trade routes and is strategically located as it sits between the Pacific Ocean and Australia and New Zealand and is also a part of the Indo-Pacific region.

China's expansion of power in the region can be attributed to many factors – firstly, China is apprehensive about QUAD gaining more influence in the region, so it also started to woo these island nations. Last year, China and Pacific Island countries held the inaugural foreign ministers' meeting and vowed to magnify cooperation in areas including poverty reduction and climate change. Moreover; over the past decade, China has been providing the region substantial aid, with China being the second-largest donor in the Pacific, after Australia. Secondly, some Pacific Island countries have started to engage in hedging behaviour, which is usually a safer option when great power competition arises and states become a battleground for power. Thirdly, China has adopted a zero-sum game strategy. China is trying not just to increase its influence in the Pacific, but also to undermine the US and Australian influence. For instance, during the Honiara violence of 2021, the Prime Minister of Solomon Islands Manasseh Sogavare asked Beijing's help, while Australia already had a security cooperation agreement with Honiara and is a key security provider. Fourthly, China has been engaged in a charm offensive, focussing on the Pacific Island Countries for some time through sustained political, economic, and other efforts. For instance, China's flagship Belt and Road initiative has already made inroads in the Pacific and already it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with ten Pacific Island Countries. Specifically, it sees the region as a critical air freight hub in its so-called Air Silk Road, which connects Asia with Central and South America. Moreover, in 2020, China established a $1.9 million fund to support the region's Covid-19 response.

The USA, however, has its apprehensions and thus adopted few countermeasures in the region perceived as part of an "American lake," as declared by US President Dwight D Eisenhower in 1954. President Joe Biden became the first-ever US President to participate in the virtual gathering of the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) leaders; he announced its intention to reopen its embassy in the Solomon Islands which was closed in 1993 - one example of its neglect of the region in the recent decades. Also, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Pacific Island nations, thus becoming the first US secretary to visit Fiji in 36 years. Apart from these, the White House delegation led by Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell also visited these islands.

Moving the cursor towards India, there is enormous scope for closer economic, political, and strategic ties between India and the South Pacific. Ties between the two are already friendly and age-old, with myriad cultural compatibilities. However, there is continued negligence from India towards the region – one example of low-key engagement is the presence of only two High Commissions in the 14 Pacific Island Countries (PICs) – Fiji and Papua New Guinea.

Firstly, India should look to gain an upper hand in the growing economic and strategic importance in the area, combined with regional dissatisfaction with Australia and New Zealand who have opened up the PICs to other direct bilateral partnerships. Secondly, India's ethnic-Indian Fiji-focused policy for the South Pacific should be on a real nation-to-nation engagement rather than only on the ethnic Indian diaspora. Extensive partnerships with the PICs will not only give India more leverage when lobbying on behalf of the diaspora but will also create wider economic and political benefits for India and the region. Thirdly, the focus should be more on trade and not on aid. As the region is naturally rich and is getting comparatively richer, PICs would appreciate access to competitively priced, reliable products from India and market access for their products. Fourth, there is significant scope for Indian businesses in the domestic and industrial markets in the PICs as the small-scale economies and societies in the Pacific are compatible with the Indian models of village-scale economies and societies. For instance, in Tonga, a used 14-year-old Toyota costs $7,000, while a new Tato Nano from India costs half that amount. India needs to step up its game, for example setting up the Forum for India–Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) and further enhancing cooperation between these island economies to unlock the under-utilized potential.

With the rising belligerence of China and counterbalancing by the USA, there is an emerging new competition among the superpowers. It's a manifestation of challenging times ahead in the South Pacific, India needs to navigate carefully in these troubled waters and churn out its best possible national interest without indulging in great power rivalry.