Opposition's unity and dilemma

A joint protest by 13 opposition parties in Assam on Thursday against the "move to privatise" the Assam Power Distribution Company Limited (APDCL) is to be seen in the context of realignment of political equations ahead of 2021 Assembly polls. Participation of the two new regional parties – Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal in the protest programme along with major opposition party Congress besides and other smaller regional parties and left parties is surely an interesting development to be watched. Exclusion of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) from the joint protest is bound to trigger the speculation if any form of electoral understanding between the Congress and new regional parties, tacit or clear, is on the cards. The AJP and Raijor Dal have been pushing for a unification of regional and other parties to defeat the BJP-led coalition and prevent Congress and AIUDF from capturing power at Dispur. Given this stated position of the two new regional parties, keeping the AIUDF out from the joint banner carry a deeper political message on opposition unity when barely four months are left for 2021 Assembly election process to start. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition cannot afford to take any such political alignment lightly, given the mass following these opposition parties have. Opposition to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 is another common political pull factor for these 13 parties to come on a common platform. The joint protest movement against "privatisation" of APDCL is sure to ring the alarm bell for the Sarbananda Sonowal-led government to anticipate revival of the anti-CAA movement, this time unitedly by opposition parties. However, the electoral alliance between the Congress and the AIUDF for the December 7 and 10 elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) have prompted both the AJP and Raijor Dal to be cautious in responding to efforts by non-Congress, non-AIUDF opposition parties for an electoral alliance of opposition parties. Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president Ripun Bora and other Congress leaders have addressed joint election rallies with AIUDF Chief Badruddin Ajmal in Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR). Bora, however, told journalists that the two parties have joined hands "in the interest of local issues in BTR" and remained non-committal when asked if the electoral alliance between the Congress and the AIUDF will also continue for 2021 Assembly polls. Differences within the Congress continue to persist over electoral alliance with the AIUDF for 2021 Assembly polls. The AIUDF, on the other hand, is keen to have an alliance with the Congress and join the grand alliance of opposition parties. Congress leaders opposed to this alliance are wary of BJP and AGP leveraging it for consolidating their gains in traditional bastions of the major opposition party. The fact that the AIUDF's birth is traced as a political response to scrapping of the erstwhile Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, 1983 by the Supreme Court in 2005, its rise in electoral politics is viewed with much apprehension by Assamese and other ethnic communities of a likely political dominance in state politics by leaders of erstwhile East Bengal origin. It is, therefore, too early to read too much into the joint protest by opposition parties. A clear picture is expected to emerge after the BTC polls are over and results are declared on December 12. All eyes are also on the AJP and the Raijor Dal if the two new regional parties will be joining hands for electoral understanding as some of their leaders have indicated and taken the lead in formation of a formidable alliance of opposition parties against the ruling coalition. The two parties taking the lead in providing an alternative is speculated as Congress continues to suffer credibility crisis because of rampant corruption during its rule and the BJP making inroads into the traditional strongholds of the grand old party. Following the demise of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, the Congress is faced with a leadership crisis. Viewed from the leadership angle, the BJP is at an advantageous position as the ruling coalition is looking at another term under the leadership of Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. Even if the opposition parties are able to reach an electoral understanding, reaching the consensus as to who will lead the combined opposition will still be a tougher challenge. Besides, the ruling coalition government has launched several schemes and programme doling out cash and other benefits to targeted beneficiaries in all the 126 Assembly constituencies with an eye on the Assembly polls. In electoral politics, the electioneering and issues shape the perception while the numbers play the crucial and deciding role as to who will wear the crown. For the electors, however, installation of a government which will work for their welfare and progress of the state always tops the list of priorities in deciding their mandate.