Russo-Ukraine Conflict: A Battle For Sphere Of Influence

The Cold War that had ended with the demolition of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 revisited the world with Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24th February in a starker and bloodier way. With the end of the World War II Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the United States of America emerged as the two strongest countries driven by their extremely opposite political ideologies. Soviet Union stood for a totalitarian Communist political system whereas the USA advocated capitalism and liberal democracy. During the post-World War II era, both these superpowers consolidated their sphere of influence in their respective regions; the Soviet Union kept under its flock the Eastern Bloc countries (Central and Eastern Europe, East Asia, and Southeast Asia). Countries like Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland remained under the tight grip of Soviet Russia, whereas the USA continued to maintain its stranglehold on the rest of Europe, parts of Asia, and over some countries in Latin America. However, both these superpowers remained steadfast in guarding their respective sphere of influence like a leopard its prey. Each of these two superpowers constantly strived to conquer the other's land and expand their sphere of influence. The methods adopted by these superpowers were usually toppling the existing governments and installing in its place a compliant one or in extreme cases launching a military expedition and forcibly bringing the country to its knees to submit before the superpower. The post-World War II history of the world is replete with such imposed wars on helpless countries in Europe and Asia. Soviet-led Warsaw Pact countries' invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1961 to suppress the Prague Spring is an instance of protecting the sphere of influence of Soviet Russia. America's involvement in the Vietnam War that ended in the humiliating defeat and subsequent withdrawal in 1975 is another instance of a failed attempt to enlarge its sphere of influence. What America suffered in Vietnam in 1975 was repeated by the Soviet Union in 1979. It invaded Afghanistan to protect the Communist government there. The USSR's misadventure in Afghanistan proved too costly for it. It suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Islamic Mujahedeen propped up by America with the help of Pakistan and withdrew from Afghanistan a decade later in 1989. This humiliating defeat became a cause for the subsequent disintegration of the Soviet Union into fifteen independent republics. All these historical events of the twentieth century; be it the invasion of Czechoslovakia or the prolonged Vietnam War or the Afghan War, or the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, points to the only objective—protection or expansion of the sphere of influence of one superpower or the other. Post-1991 the world prepared itself to be governed by a unipolar world order led solely by the USA.

As the sole superpower in the world America acted recklessly and arbitrarily invading Iraq on the trumped-up charges of having Weapons of Mass Destruction in 2003 to topple Saddam Hussain. In its hubris of the sole superpower of the world, America ignored the silent rise of China. Only in the early 1990s did the world sit up and took notice that a country has risen to challenge the might of the USA economically. From 1999 onwards when Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin came to power in Russia, he incessantly worked to make Russia great again. The rise in oil prices and Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas made the Russian economy stronger with every passing day. He added state-of-the-art weaponry and missile systems to export another wing of the Russian economy to make it further strong. By 2014, he gained enough confidence to annex Crimea, a part of Ukraine till then, into the Russian Federation. The USA and EU put some sanctions but they did not bite him much as the whole of Europe was dependent on Russian natural gas through the Nord Stream pipeline running under the Baltic Sea. He was determined to take Russia to the glorious era of the Soviet Union, a country to reckon with in international politics. Russia with its newfound economic might is now able to punch much above its weight. The other country that was making a silent march in the field of economic progress was China. China has been working on its economic system since 1978 to reach this stage now. By the mid-1990s it has emerged as a challenger to the USA at least in economic terms. Now America faces two challengers one in economically strong China and the other is a resurgent Russia, the old antagonist. Now the battle for the sphere of influence has returned to take the centre stage in world politics this time among three players— America, China, and Russia. China made subtle moves to nibble away countries away from America by offering lucrative infrastructure projects. China with its economic might made rapid inroads into Africa, Asia, and also in Latin America, the backyard of America. Europe being conscious that they have been dependent on Russian natural gas and oil ignored the military rise of Russia. America woke up to the new geopolitical reality of a rising challenger in China and a resurgent Russia at a very unfavourable time in its history, when it has just suffered the ignominy of the Afghanistan debacle in August 2021. It is of paramount importance to American policymakers that they should not, at any cost, cede any more ground to either China or Russia to remain relevant in the world geopolitics. Some American liberal thinkers are of the opinion that new world order is imminent where Russia will have its sphere of influence in the Eastern European countries as it used to be during the Soviet era; a new player in world politics China will have the whole of Asia as its fiefdom. And America will have to remain contented playing the limited role in Europe and NATO countries.

The present Russia-Ukraine conflict should be seen in this new geopolitical backdrop. What irked Putin's Russia is Ukraine's flirting with NATO and the European Union. Ukraine seceded from the Soviet Union in 1991 along with many former Soviet provinces. Former Soviet provinces like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have already joined NATO and the present ruling dispensation led by Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine too is more than desirous to join European Union and NATO. President Volodymyr Zelensky won a landslide victory in the 2019 elections on the plank of joining the EU and NATO. Ukraine's pro-Europe stance acted as the proverbial red rag to the raging bull and Putin could not tolerate an erstwhile southwest province of Russia to be orbiting out of his sphere of influence and getting closer to the West. The invasion of Ukraine shows the depth of hubris of Putin and what objective he plans to achieve by this hugely destructive action of putting the innocent common people of a sovereign country into such misery is best known to him. However, the resolve of the European Union, the UK, and America in sanctioning and providing military aid to Ukraine definitely will isolate Russia and Putin to such an extent that it would start hurting the Russian economy and the pinch will be felt by the common people of Russia. It may bring in simmering discontent among the common people, ingredients for revolution, and regime change. Putin should not forget Arab Spring of 2010, and his very own Russian Revolution of 1917 and be aware of the consequences the regimes had suffered.