The BTC outcome

Election to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) has ended peacefully, with people from all walks of life participating without fear for the first time ever. The election this time in fact turned out to be a sort of festival with parties, candidates and supporters engaging in music, songs and dance while carrying out their respective campaign. The result of the election which came out after counting of the ballot papers late Saturday evening on the other hand has once again established the supremacy and glory of democracy in India. There was hardly any disturbance anywhere, and not even any major complaint from any quarter. And, the best part of it is the fact that all the contending parties and candidates have happily accepted the verdict of the people. It is a fact that no party could attain even a simple majority. Though there was a strong anti-incumbency factor at work, the ruling Bodo People's Front (BPF) headed by Hagrama Mohilary did come out as the largest party with 17 seats.

But then, the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) and BJP, which bagged 12 and nine seats respectively, did not waste a moment to clinch a post-election alliance in order to cobble up a majority formation with 21 seats in a House of 40. Lok Sabha Independent member and former ULFA militant Naba Saraniya's Gana Suraksha Party (GSP) too joined hands, taking the strength of the UPPL-led alliance to 22. Very interesting to note, Hagrama Mohilary, against whom the BJP had mounted an aggressive campaign in the Bodoland Territorial Council election, tried his best to retain power by extending his hand of friendship to the saffron party on Sunday. But then it was too late. This leaves the BPF in a very precarious situation, especially as it continues to be an ally of the BJP at the state level and is a partner of the three-party ruling alliance headed by Sarbananda Sonowal in Dispur. The BJP, and especially NEDA convenor Himanta Biswa Sarma has reiterated that its alliance with the BPF at the state level would continue till the 2021 elections; though it is not at all clear whether that implicates that the BJP and BPF would remain partners in the 2021 Assembly election or not. But then, one should not rule out that the BJP has its eyes fixed on 14 Assembly segments that are fully or partially covered by the BTC area.

Reading deeply, one can probably find from the BTC election result that the BPF still has a lot of clout in the 12 Assembly constituencies which it currently holds. It could be for this reason that the BJP has not written off the BPF altogether. The saffron party probably has already begun analysing the election data in the context of the 12 BTC seats which the UPPL has won. Moreover, it will be also interesting to analyse the results of all the parties contested the BTC election, including the Congress, and more particularly Maulana Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). While one does not need rocket science to understand and analyse the status of the tottering Congress party in the four Bodoland districts, it is very important to analyse the performance the AIUDF, a party which was established to protect the interests of the immigrant Muslims who have their roots in pre-Partition East Bengal, erstwhile East Pakistan and present-day Bangladesh. Though there have been in circulation certain perceptions about why the Bodos have alienated from the Assamese, the fact remains that the Bodos – and for that matter the Rabhas and Tiwas – have been worst affected because of the increasing clout of the immigrant Muslims. A simple glance at the demographic changes that have taken place in the erstwhile undivided Goalpara district (which now comprises Dhubri, Kokrajhar, South Salmara Mankachar, Goalpara, and parts of Chirang districts), as also in Morigaon district is enough to understand how the tribal communities of Assam have been systematically marginalized by the immigrant Muslims.