The Charade of Opposition Unity

Amitava Mukherjee

(amitavamukherjee253@gmail.com)

Political parties in India, except the BJP, often fail to understand that Indian polity always provides a space for opposition parties. But there is a rider in it- the parties will gain a respectable space if they behave responsibly. The frontline political parties of India have failed in this respect because most of them are too ambitious and want to gobble up a too large share of power and pelf disproportionate to their social and political base. The BJP – or its earlier incarnation –the Jan Sangh has stood out as exception. It is because the BJP, even when in the opposition, had its own ideology, whether one agrees to it or not, did not temporize and remained content with the space time had allowed it. Just remember the time when it had only two MPs after the 1984 Lok Sabha election. The party did not go into a flurry, did wait for its time and made the most of it when it came.

Now look at the other end of the spectrum- the Congress- which is still the fulcrum of any opposition bloc. It is losing one after another election but still has 120 million voters on its side. True, the voter base is diffused, so diffused that even worthy candidates cannot muster sufficient votes in single constituencies for a win. But for quite a long time, since the time of Indira Gandhi, the Congress has become an example of the irrefutability of the Murphy's Law, a law of nature which avers that one which can go wrong will ultimately go wrong. Since the accession of Indira Gandhi, Congress had strayed from the path of internal democracy, embraced family rule and mediocrity and charted its own course of destruction. The rot has taken hold of the 137-year old of the party so much that it has lost the ability to understand where it is going wrong.

In such a scenario appeared a maverick named Prasanta Kishore who perceives politics as a management issue. But Sonia Gandhi, like a drowning person desperate to clutch a straw, invited suggestions from Kishore for reviving the fortune of her party forgetting that Prasanta Kishore has no emotional or sentimental identification with the Congress' ideology and his suggestions are bound to veer away from the soul of Congress. As expected, his attitude showed signs of disrespect for the Congress organization as a whole. Finally, he rubbed salt on the Congress' wound by refusing to accept the offer the Congress had made to him. Such is the status and weight of the Congress leadership today.

The water is made murkier by other opposition parties. Mamata Banerjee is not prepared to accept the Congress in any opposition conglomerate which is supposed to give fight to the BJP in the 2024 parliamentary poll. She has her own reasons. Today regional parties are actual opponents of the BJP in different states. She is loathe to accept Sonia or Rahul as leaders of any opposition bloc. Chandrashekhar Rao of Telengana and Jagan Mohan Reddy of Andhra Pradesh, chief ministers of their respective states, follow the same line. However, MK Stalin of the DMK, current chief minister of Tamil Nadu, maintains good relations with Congress. Into this picture comes Sharad Pawar, another wily politician, whom Mamata is trying to catapult for offsetting Sonia and Rahul. But Pawar has his own equations which he does not want to forsake in exchange for support from Mamata Banerjee. The Maratha strongman is prepared to lead any united opposition challenge to the BJP but he would not leave out the Congress as he thinks that there can be no worthwhile opposition to the BJP minus Congress.

So any united opposition to the BJP in 2024 may be far off. The opposition leaders are committing a fundamental mistake too. Beneath the façade of federalism a strong subterranean current of unitary sentiments always permeate the minds of the Indian electorate. They always look for a strong, towering personality. Jawaharlal Nehru provided this till 1964. During this period Congress could easily capture 60 per cent of Lok sabha seats in spite of getting around 40 per cent votes. Congress started losing its monolithic hold over the country after Nehru's death because the party could not throw up any strong leader to whom the nation could look up for succor. That was the beginning of the Congress' demise. The syndicate could not stem the rot. Congress' fortune was again revived after Indira Gandhi could provide a strong leadership.

But in independent India, political dynamics and respective political roles have always been determined by proximity to power except in 1977. So in the 1950s and in the 1960s, the opposition could not jolt the Congress in spite of having towering leaders in its ranks like Nath Pai, Acharya Kripalani, Madhu Limaye, George Fernandez, Atal Bihari Vajpayiee, LK Advani etc. The principle reason was that they always agreed to disagree among themselves before elections. This process was spurred by the fact that they were operating outside the power circuit. Fundamental differences were also there. It was impossible for the Socialists to swim along the Swatantra Party or the Jan Sangh. New social forces – caste-based parties like the Bharatiya Kranti Dal- arose after the 1967 general election leading to further fragmentation in the opposition bloc.

Mamata Banerjee must realize that she is no Jayprakash Narayan who could unite all shades of opposition political parties in 1977 and defeat Indira Gandhi by his own charisma. Mamata lacks credibility and introduction outside West Bengal. Moreover, the line-up she is trying to project- Sharad Pawar, Shiv Sena, Chandrashekhar Rao, Jagan Mohan Reddy- is too disparate, too brittle and may crumble at the slightest provocation. Moreover, what would be the place of Akhilesh Yadav in it? It is learnt that Akhilesh is not very happy with the opposition unity process as he thinks that he is not getting sufficient focus. Or can the opposition bigwigs do without Mayawati? She is still a factor in Uttar Pradesh. What way Mayawati will go is a difficult proposition.

Like it or not, among a large section of the electorate, Narendra Modi has acquired the aura of a strong leader. Till now the opposition bloc has not been able to throw up a matching counterweight. It will not be unjust to conclude that the moment the opposition leaders start searching for a similar figure too many motives, too many cross purposes will come into play to stymie the process.