Afghanistan and changed geopolitics of the region

Dr Sudhir Kumar Das

(dasudhirk@gmail.com)

The visuals of frantic men running alongside a moving American C-17 military transport plane and a few perched precariously on its sideways and subsequently falling to their macabre death has been etched indelibly in the collective conscience worldwide. The world watched in shock and awe the Islamic extremist group Taliban taking over Kabul unopposed on 15th August after a gap of twenty years. Taliban's recapture of power in Afghanistan has brought back the gory medievalist images of summary public executions, floggings, drastic curtailment of women and religious minority rights, regressive acts which had taken Afghanistan back to the Medieval Age during their first phase of reign from 1996 to 2001. People escaping from this brutal regime and falling to their death has become a defining image of American betrayal and Afghan desperation to escape a brutal regime. The chaotic images coming from Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan now can be effectively juxtaposed with the visuals of American withdrawal from Vietnam when Saigon fell to the North Vietnam Communist forces on 30th April 1975. The two events taking place some 46 years apart reminded me of the old popular adage that those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it. It came true in the case of America. The USA intervened in Afghanistan in 2001 in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack to hunt down the Al Qaeda terrorists sheltered by the Taliban and the present hasty retreat has brought the country back to square one.

Now that the Ashraf Ghani government has fallen, and the Taliban has successfully ensconced itself in power in Afghanistan, the geopolitics of the region has changed unrecognizably in a very short period. The establishment of the Taliban-headed Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and its geostrategic location with accessibility to land-locked Central Asia makes it a fertile playground for power politics. There are now four countries- Iran China, Russia, and Pakistan- that have welcomed the Taliban's ascension to power with open arms. These four countries have different reasons to support the new conservative Islamic ruling dispensation in Afghanistan. Iran sees this as a humiliating defeat of its main adversary America. The American departure from Afghanistan is hailed as a strategic victory for Iran as it was never comfortable with the US military presence in its backyard. Russia too sees it as an American defeat and humiliation, similar to the one Soviet Union had suffered some 32 years back at the time of their pull-out in 1989 from Afghanistan after a decade of bloody war. The clock of history has come full circle. Russia too wants a foothold in the geopolitics of this region to protect its Muslim population from getting infected by the virus of conservative Islamism. China looks at this regime change in Afghanistan as purely an economic and strategic opportunity to extend its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) through Afghanistan and to exploit its mineral resources to meet its ever-growing energy requirements. China wants to exercise influence over the Taliban to regulate and control the Turkmenistan Islamic Movement troubling its Xinjiang province by exporting hard-line Islamism. Pakistan sees it as a strategic triumph over India as the earlier government of Asraf Ghani and Hamid Karzai were very friendly with India and allowed India strategic depth to the discomfort of Pakistan's military establishment. The new regime of the Taliban has been openly termed by many western commentators as a fully owned subsidiary of the Pakistan army. So it cannot have wished for a more favourable dispensation at the helm of Afghanistan's affairs.

What does this regime change in Afghanistan mean for India? First and foremost with the dominance of the Taliban in Afghanistan India's $3 billion investment has gone down the drain. Through this investment in building the Afghan parliament building, a symbol of democracy, Salma Dam, a hydroelectric project, schools, hospitals, and highways India has created for itself a constructive image among the people of Afghanistan. It now remains to be seen how the Taliban would treat India diplomatically. Secondly, India's investment in Chabahar port in Iran will turn into a dead investment. India had plans to trade through this port with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Gulf countries. That now seems a remote possibility until and unless a miraculous diplomatic effort saves it. Thirdly, there is a growing apprehension among Indian security establishments that with the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan, militancy in Jammu and Kashmir will get a boost. Although the Taliban has made it clear that Kashmir is an internal matter of India, there is a lot of scepticism about this in India. It cannot be overlooked that Pakistan based terrorist organizations like Lashkar e Toiba and Jaishe Mohammad have their umbilical cords linked to the Taliban.

Taliban in power in Afghanistan has caused a geopolitical upheaval in international relations particularly in Southeast Asia. The political, economical, and strategic relationships among Southeast Asian countries is bound to be realigned because of a new regime in Afghanistan. India will have to vie for influence in Afghanistan constantly fighting with a more dominant Pakistan. The axis of countries in support of the Taliban and opposed to it have made their stances clear. China-Iran-Russia-Pakistan forms an axis of countries who gain most politically, economically, and strategically from this change of regime in Afghanistan. India and the USA are the conspicuous losers in this Great Game of Afghanistan geopolitics. America's image as a reliable and trustworthy ally has been substantially damaged after its hasty retreat. India's plans of accessibility of trade routes to Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and others now stand as a distant dream. India has to live with this new reality of a hostile China-Pakistan axis playing their dirty anti-India game using the Afghanistan soil to foment unrest in Jammu and Kashmir.

What is the way out for India in Afghanistan after this geopolitical upheaval in south-east Asia? It is India's "To be, or not to be, that is the question" moment. India cannot jump like China or Iran gleefully embracing Taliban-led government in Afghanistan nor can it afford to ignore it altogether by remaining diplomatically aloof from it. The whisper in the diplomatic circle is that India should wait patiently till some favourable vibes are made by the Taliban and observe prudently the revelation of the true self of Taliban 2.0. If it sticks to the promises of moderation and shares power with an inclusive government as it has claimed; then only India can think of diplomatic relations with the Taliban government. But it should not be forgotten that Pakistan as a hostile country and as the mentor of the Taliban will oppose tooth and nail any Indian attempt to find a toe-hold in Afghanistan. The other option for India is to covertly play the role of a mentor of the Northern Alliance led by Abdul Rashid Dostum, Amrullah Saleh, and other anti-Taliban warlords. The Taliban victory has brought back the old Cold War diametric into the geopolitics of this region. The world is now polarized between two distinct groups—on one side it is the USA, European countries, and India, and on the other, there are the four countries China-Iran-Russia-Pakistan ready to exploit the murky waters of Afghanistan. Where will all this lead to remains a trillion-dollar question?