Bangladesh turmoil cloud over NE connectivity hopes

Bangladesh has plunged into an era of political crisis after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country amid massive protests demanding her resignation. The Bangladesh Army, after taking over the reign, announced that an interim government would be formed soon. The volatile situation unfolding in the neighbouring country has left several strategic transborder connectivity projects, initiated jointly by India and Bangladesh that are critical to India’s Northeast region, clouded by uncertainty. The bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries deepened during Sheikh Hasina’s regime which led to Bangladesh allowing its inland waterways, seaports, railways for connecting the northeast region to rest of India via alternate and short routes. These connectivity projects are crucial for the northeastern region, as operationalising them would drastically cut travel distance and time between destinations in the region and the rest of India and facilitate faster growth in the region. India took a pragmatic approach to describing the student-led protests in Bangladesh as “internal matters” of the country. An estimated 300 people were killed during the crackdown against violent protests while protestors stormed into Prime Minister Hasina’s official residence shortly after she had resigned, fled, and looted it, which is reflective of the volatile situation in the country. It is difficult to predict how long the interim government rule will last after it is formed, but the policies to be adopted by it will be crucial for the fate of bilateral agreements and projects between India and Bangladesh. Some of the transborder projects that are aimed at ending geographical isolation in the Northeast region and were completed in the past  year include the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link, the sixth India-Bangladesh cross-border rail link, and cargo facilities for the region through Khulna-Mongla port. Similar cross-border projects facilitated by deepening bilateral relations between the two countries include the successful operation of the world’s longest river cruise from Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh to Dibrugarh in Assam via the Indo-Bangla Protocol (IBP) route. This demonstrated the viability of the connectivity between India’s National Waterway (NW) 1 (River Ganga) and NW-2 (River Brahmaputra) via the strategic IBP route along the Bangladesh inland waterway, and both India and Bangladesh are exploring the Brahmaputra waterway to boost tourism, trade, and passenger movement between the two countries. Dredging IBP waterways and the Brahmaputra regularly is essential to maintaining the required navigational depth, but the political crisis in Bangladesh has cast a shadow of uncertainty over using the IBP route. India and Bangladesh signed a new Memorandum of Understanding on railway connectivity in June to allow use of each other’s railway network for movement of goods and people, as well as Bhutan and Nepal. This highlighted India’s effort to leverage its strong bilateral relations with Bangladesh to end the landlocked situation of the region and put it on a faster track of development and growth. India will have to wait and watch the approach of the interim government towards these projects, but it is in the best interest of the two neighbouring countries that Bangladesh, irrespective of regime change, ensures continuation of the agreements and policies in place for cross-border connectivity projects. Bangladesh will earn huge revenue and generate huge employment by allowing use of its seaports, rail routes, roadways, and waterways for connecting the northeastern region with the rest of India. Rising unemployment is one of the root causes of ongoing unrest led by students in Bangladesh over controversial job reservation quotas, and it is also a burning problem in the developing-deficit northeast region. These cross-border projects can be mutually beneficial for both neighbouring countries to create new employment avenues. Foreign forces, which do not want the India-Bangladesh bilateral relations to strengthen and be the pivot of stronger multilateral cooperation in South Asia and Southeast Asia, will not leave any stone unturned to sabotage the bilateral and multilateral cooperations by exploiting the fluid situation in Bangladesh. Peace in the neighbourhood is crucial for achieving the goals under India’s Act East and Neighbourhood policies. As the Northeast region lies at the centre of these two foreign policies of India, the restoration of peace and democracy in politically volatile Myanmar and Bangladesh is the first priority for the country. Two crucial cross-border connectivity projects in Myanmar, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway Project, which are crucial to connecting the Northeast region to the ASEAN economy, have been further delayed due to political turbulence in the neighbouring country. The Kaladan project is also critical to opening an alternate sea route to connect the Northeast region with the rest of India. The connectivity projects through Bangladesh and Myanmar are strategically important to keep the supply line running in the wake of any emergency situation leading to the closure of the Siliguri Corridor. Normalcy returning to Bangladesh and the installation of a democratically elected government at the earliest will end the uncertainties over the projects, which are crucial for the region.