Building pandemic-resilient economy

Suspension of inter-district movement of people and transport services in Assam for 15 days from Friday is a wise move by the Assam government to contain COVID-19 infections. Spike in positive cases and fatalities call for drastic containment measures in addition to partial lockdown already in force. The challenge for the state, however, is to absorb the economic shocks on account of the cascading impact of these restrictive measures. The downturn in the economy will result in a reduction in revenue collection. It also leads to loss of livelihoods and reduces the purchasing capacity of the people. Loss of revenue will adversely affect development work and projects. The restrictions are expected to reduce a load of active caseloads on the health system. The Health Department can also utilize the time to improve its preparation for the third wave of pandemic by augmenting the health infrastructure and mobilising more human resources. The state recorded the highest single-day fatalities of 92 deaths due to COVID-19 infections on Monday. The day also logged the highest single-day spike of 6394 fresh cases. The state government has attributed the rise in fatalities to delay in hospitalization of patients in home isolation rushing for treatment when the condition of the patient has already turned critical with a critical drop in oxygen saturation level. The primary reason behind the delay in the hospitalization of such patients is understood to have been the failure of the attendants of patients in home isolation to strictly follow the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) issued by the Health Department. This suggests that there is a communication gap from the end of the Health Department in explaining the nitty-gritty of the SOP and the consequences of not following it. Public health issues are complicated and every section of people cannot be expected to possess the same level of understanding as to the healthcare personnel.

One way of tackling this problem can be the health department revisiting its SOP to make it more communicable to the families attending to patients in home isolation. In some families almost all the members have been infected which has made things worse. Another way of addressing the problem can be the health department putting in place a system of calling up patients in home isolation regularly to remind them of monitoring the oxygen saturation level and other symptoms and advising accordingly. Instead of waiting for the patients and attendants to call and seek advice, a team of doctors and healthcare professionals can be mobilised to monitor the status of patients through a monitoring mechanism decentralised to zones in Guwahati city and towns in urban areas and a cluster of villages in rural areas. Many families cannot afford to purchase a pulse oximeter required by the SOP to monitor the oxygen level. Distribution of pulse oximeter to needy Below Poverty Line families can be arranged through the testing centres against the production of official documents such as BPL cards after test results confirm positivity and triaging is done on the severity of infection. The suspension of inter-district movement can be effective in flattening the curve only when the spread of infection within a district is prevented simultaneously. Economic measures to increase the household income, once the restrictions are eased, will be critical to absorbs shocks of longer and harsher restrictions that may be required to be imposed to handle the third wave.

Partial lockdowns have already caused severe economic hardships to daily wage earners, shop and small traders, farmers, rickshaw pullers, cab and auto drivers, vegetable and other roadside vendors. Creating alternative livelihoods besides economic assistance during the intervening period between two pandemic waves will provide economic relief. Surplus money in hands of these families is important to ensure investment in farm sectors, consumption of goods and services that are vital to improving the overall economy of the state. Frequent disruptions in normal life due to restrictions imposed to flatten the pandemic curve has also led to the closure of much private business which has become unviable. This has led to shrinkage of the job market, rise in unemployment and loss of income. Loss of business due to pandemic has led to a reduction in collection of Goods and Services Tax. Loss of revenue is going to adversely impact the projects and schemes earmarked in the state budget. The state is also looking at more disruptions in economic activities during the impending flood season. Expediting financial assistance to erosion-hit families and speedy disbursal of fund under the Disaster Risk Mitigation Fund besides allotment of land can provide relief for many families in need. While the health department focuses on measures aimed at breaking the pandemic chain, it is hoped that all other government departments will utilize the time to formulate elaborate strategies to help the state absorb the economic shocks of restrictions on normal life. The state needs out of the box solutions to build a pandemic-resilient economy.