Choosing the right pathway for net zero goals

 India’s window of using fossil fuel-based energy to meet development goals is fast closing with the country’s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. A report prepared by IIM Ahmedabad for the Office of the Principle Scientific Advisor to the Government of India and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited has outlined the specific goals of energy transitions. Some of the key highlights of the report speak volumes about the challenges that lie ahead. These are: Coal is projected to continue to be the backbone of the country’s energy system for the next two decades. Net-zero is not possible without substantial nuclear power and renewable energy (RE) generation by 2070. The coal phase-down will require active policies on critical minerals and carbon dioxide removal technologies. The most critical challenge is the financial requirements for meeting the goals of the energy transition, which are estimated to be to the tune of Rs 150–200 lakh crore during 2020–2070. This equates to an average of Rs 3 lakh crore to Rs 4 lakh crore of investment every year during the five decades. Official data shows that out of the total generation capacity of 9,943 MW added in 2023–24, 1,674 MW is from fossil fuel sources and 8,269 MW is from non-fossil fuel sources. During the year, 7,569 MW of renewable capacity (including large hydro) consisting of 5,531 MW of solar, 1,931 MW of wind, 34 MW of biomass, 42 MW of small hydro, and 30 MW of large hydro generation capacity have been added. The report titled “Synchronising energy transitions towards possible Net Zero for India: Affordable and clean energy for all” highlights that achieving net zero goals is not possible without substantial nuclear power and renewable energy generation by 2070. The country’s efforts to decarbonise the transport sector meet the challenge of renewable energy electricity generation for charging stations and make available low-cost battery technologies. If electricity for charging the batteries of electric vehicles continues to come from coal-based power plants and is not sourced from clean energy sources like renewables or nuclear power plants, In such a scenario, the phasing-down period of coal will be further stretched, and this in turn will push net-zero achievement beyond the 2070 target year. Currently, the batteries of electric vehicles use lithium-ion batteries, which makes India dependent on the import of batteries and technology to meet its demand. This pushes the upfront cost of electric vehicles, which has been a stumbling block to faster EV adoption in the country. Low penetration of EVs will keep pushing up the demand for fossil-fuel-powered vehicles, and this will continue to increase the demand for fossil fuel production to meet the demands in the automobile sector. Without renewable energy sources as feeding sources of decarbonised solutions like EVs and green hydrogen, carbon emissions in the transport sector, which are reduced on roads, railways, waterways, and airways, get added to electricity generation plants run on fossil fuels. Thus, the objective of mitigating climate change impact through alternative fuel use remains unfulfilled, even though more EVs could be seen playing on the roads. One way of reducing demand for fossil fuels is by strengthening the public transport system with fleets of EV buses and mass rapid transit systems like metro rails in cities like Guwahati, where increasing demand for personal mobility solutions has led to a worsening of the problem of carbon emissions. India’s current installed capacity for renewable energy generation is 180 gigawatts, against its target of generating 500 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030. The country needs to add on average 53 gigawatts of renewable energy every year over the next six years, which is quite higher than the 7.5 gigawatts of renewable energy added in 2023–24. Failure to increase the capacity to add more installed capacity of renewable energy will only derail the ambitious plan to have 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel-based electricity generation installed capacity by 2030. This will imply that coal will continue to dominate the country’s energy mix to meet growing demand for electricity in different sectors like transport, industry, agriculture, and household electricity consumption beyond the projected period. The complexities of energy transition bring to the fore the debate on the development model to set priorities for development in developing and underdeveloped countries. Mere adoption of the principle of sustainable development is not going to change the situation, and incorporating it into all spheres of human development is of paramount importance. Sustainable development models can still be found in practice among indigenous communities in the northeastern region, and some of these models can be mainstreamed to significantly reduce pressure on natural resources to meet development needs. This can be possible only if people are ready to adopt minimalist principles followed by traditional indigenous societies, which underscore the importance of making life’s goal free from pursuits of personal possessions. Climate change is real and cautions us to choose our development priorities wisely.