Coalition constraints

The results of assembly elections in Bihar have several takeaways for coalition politics. The ruling coalition of Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has retained power with simple majority but with their roles interchanged. Now, the BJP will play the 'big brother' while JD(U) will play second fiddle. It also showed how allies ditch and drag in electoral politics. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will continue to wear the crown but with a weakened claim to the throne. For the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) turned out to be the biggest spoiler. The LJP continued to be an NDA constituent at the Centre but contested in 137 of the total 243 seats and campaigned for ouster of Nitish Kumar. Though the party managed to win only one seat it has damaged the electoral prospects of JD(U) in about 40 seats thereby bringing down the JD(U) tally to 43. The JD(U) won 70 seats and the BJP won 53 seats in 2015 Assembly polls. The BJP this time has emerged the second largest party in the state with 74 seats one less than the single largest party- the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the main constituent of the opposition Mahagatbandhan. Interestingly, the LJP refrained from attacking the BJP during election campaign which triggered speculation about political manoeuvring within the ruling coalition. The mandate is such that the numbers will keep reminding the ruling coalition partners that they will need each other to continue to be in power for full five-year term. The stability of new government will equally depend on two king makers Vikasheel Indian Party and Hindustani Awam Morcha with these two parties winning four seats each. Unlike Bihar, the mandate in Assam in 2016 Assembly polls led to emergence of two kingmakers who needed the king more than the king needed them. The two coalition partners of the BJP – the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) emerged as the kingmakers with 14 and 12 seats respectively. But the BJP needed only four seats due to which it need not be dependent on both AGP and BPF at all the time. The LJP and RJD cutting into JD(U)'s electoral prospects of winning more seats showed strong anti-incumbency against JD(U) after three consecutive term of Nitish Kumar swaying the state and despite development work and good governance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign helped the BJP not just withstand the anti-incumbency but increase its tally despite the Mahagatbandhan of RJD, Congress and the left parties putting up a tough challenge. This shows that the Modi juggernaut is still unstoppable even in states with strong regional players. The issues of unemployment, development dominated and overshadowed caste issues which used to dominate the past elections. This has brought hopes for real issues of the people to take centre stage in electoral politics to replacing divisive issues. The RJD's campaign rallies centring around the issues of education, health and joblessness attracted massive turnout of youth. This reflects the real unemployment situation and frustration among the country's youth and should be seen as a wake-up call for the Modi government as well as for all state governments to pay attention to the problem of rising unemployment before it is too late. Rise of 31-year-old RJD Yadav that helped the party to emerge as the single largest party was a stellar show in this Bihar polls. The poor performance of the Congress dragged the Mahagatbdnahan alliance down as the party managed to win only 19 of the 70 seats contested. Vacillation of the Congress party in electing a president outside the Nehru-Gandhi family has left its ship rudderless. The electoral verdict in Bihar reinforces the political realities that the Congress cannot save the sinking ship unless it is serious about the course correction to regain its acceptance among electors. The Hyderabad-based All Indian All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which claims to champion the cause of Muslims, winning five seats in Bihar Assembly polls and cutting into votes of Mahagatbandhan has sounded an alarm bell that religious polarization, if allowed to overshadow the development issues, will dominate the electoral Indian politics. Revival of the Left parties in Bihar may turn out to be significant milestone in coalition politics in Hindi belt as well as in other states. The new political spectrum of Bihar is the new reality of coalition politics. For the new government in Bihar, there is no alternative to pushing ahead the development agenda to the next level to stay strong and focused on the face of new challenges of coalition politics. The message Bihar poll outcome has brought for coalition partners in Assam is that they cannot ignore the spoilers if they want to stay in the number game for the throne.