Decisive mandate for development & stability

The spectacular victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, Manipur and Uttarakhand and the party poised to retain power in Goa reflects a clear and decisive mandate by voters in these four states for development and political stability. The massive victory of the Aam Admi Party (AAP) in Punjab has made AAP a key player in national politics. However, the AAP will face a herculean task in delivering the freebies it promised to the voters. BJP securing a single majority in Manipur shattered the kingmaker dreams of both the Naga People's Front (NPF) and the National People's Party (NPP) despite the two regional allies of the saffron party improving their tally. The decimation of the Congress in Manipur to just five seats against 28 won last time further marginalized the party in the northeast region. Results in all five states show that voters gave a punishing mandate to the Congress party decimating its electoral influence as a pan-India political party. The mandate reflected the anger of voters against the Congress party for arrogantly continuing the overarching leadership of the Gandhi family in the grand old party despite Gandhi-scions- Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi being rejected by voters multiple times for their failure to connect with the masses. In-fighting within the Congress cost the party heavily. In Uttar Pradesh, the powerful combination of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath led to BJP scripting a history of the ruling party retaining power for a consecutive term after 36 years. From 1996 to 2017, the ruling party was voted out in UP but this time BJP's campaign of "double engine" government- Modi at the Centre and Yogi helped the ruling party script the new political history in the state. The BJP, however, cannot ignore the better performance of the Samajwadi Party in UP compared to 2017 if the saffron party is looking at repeating the 2019 Lok Sabha performance in the next elections to the lower house of the parliament to be held in 2024. These five states together send 102 MPs to the Lok Sabha and the BJP winning 71 of these seats was a key factor behind its landslide victory in 2019 with 303 seats of total 543 Lok Sabha seats. With the country bracing for the steep hike in petrol prices due to rise in international crude oil price triggered by the economic fallout of Russian invasion in Ukraine, the BJP government at the Centre as well in these four of these five states where it has won besides the states it is currently ruling are poised to face the challenge of rising inflation and the slow recovery of the pandemic ravaged economy. The slow recovery in the economy will pose challenges in mobilising the required revenue generation that will be required to fulfil the poll promises. The rise in unemployment on account of the economic downturn could be a major governance challenge for both the central and state governments. The BJP, however, has garnered positive votes by ensuring last-mile delivery in all flagship schemes ensuring that every single beneficiary gets their due benefits. Adoption of direct benefit transfer to beneficiaries weeded out the middlemen who used to pocket the lion's share during Congress rule at the Centre and in Congress-ruled states. This marked improvement in the delivery of welfare measures has brought about a perceptible change in governance for the voters which the Congress and other opposition parties ignored while articulating their electoral strategy and campaigns, particularly in BJP-ruled states. Marginalization of the Congress after the election to these five states presents a new political reality in India's politics moving towards a unipolarity as far as pan-India electoral influence is concerned. In Manipur, the BJP's campaign focused on freeing the state from Blockades, bandhs and encounters apart from the slogan of double engine government did the magic. The mandate reflected that voters wanted a stable government to give the development agenda a strong push and such decisions not to face the constraints of a coalition government. The mandate and government formation will have ramifications in the electoral politics of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura which are going to polls next year and decide the future course of the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance. The BJP's rise made the country's politics shift from unipolar during heydays of Congress rule at the Centre and in most states to bipolar and decimation of the Congress has now again made it shift towards unipolarity. A strong opposition is needed for democracy to become robust and vibrant but Indian voters have become mature to distinguish a political watchdog from an antagonist and the mandate of these five states has brought lessons for Congress and other opposition parties. As for the Congress, the party reconciling to the new political reality that it has lost its pan-India appeal has become an urgent necessity to prevent losing its relevance in Indian electoral politics.