Demystifying India’s decarbonization goals

India has made significant progress in the production of renewable energy, but that does not mean that the country is going to burn less coal to meet its electricity demand. The demand for an assured supply of electricity is agnostic of sources of energy, as the concern is to get uninterrupted and quality power round the clock. The quantum of electricity demand by households and industrial consumers will determine the pace of decarbonization in the country’s energy sector. Advisories issued by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) demystified that coal is not being phased down so soon. The rise in renewable energy production will bring down the share of coal in the country’s energy mix, but the absolute tonnage of coal to be fired to produce electricity will increase to meet rising energy demand. The CEA asked all thermal power companies not to retire or repurpose their coal-based power stations until 2030 and to ensure that these stations keep producing adequate electricity, keeping in mind the rapidly growing electricity demand. The CEA has also advised undertaking renovation and modernization of the power stations, if required, to ensure adequate electricity production. The Ministry of Power also argues that electricity generation is a delicensed activity, and the phasing out or retirement of units is decided by power-generating companies based on their own techno-economic assessment, energy demand, and environmental reasons. It also asserts that as the economy continues to grow and access to affordable electricity becomes more widespread, the coal sector will remain a crucial source of energy in the country. This explains the government standpoint explained in the parliament: while some coal mines may close due to exhaustion of coal reserves, many new coal plants will be operationalised to meet the rising electricity demand. The explanation cautions us not to be under any illusion of phasing down coal burning without actual decarbonisation goals being met in different sectors like transport, household electricity supply, agriculture, and industry. Solar power installed capacity in the country has increased from 2.8 gigawatts to 85 gigawatts, and wind power has increased from 21 gigawatts to 47 gigawatts over the past decade. The remarkable progress signifies the efforts made to increase renewable energy production. Decarbonization of the transport sector presents a plethora of challenges. The increase in the number of non-fossil fuel-powered vehicles on the road is dependent on the availability of adequate electric vehicle charging stations or adequate compressed natural gas stations to address the problem of range anxiety. If EV charging stations are fuelled by electricity from coal plants, the installation of thousands of charging stations will further increase the electricity demand on the grid. If additional demand for electricity is not met by renewable energy, the objective of decarbonising the transport sector through the mere sale of more electric vehicles is not going to change the carbon emission scenario; rather, it may only increase it. Off-grid solar-powered charging stations hold better promise of achieving decarbonisation goals in transport when coal power dominates the grid supply. Increasing the supply of solar-powered electricity can also increase the share of renewable energy in the grid. The PM-Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana, which aims at installing rooftop solar plants in one crore households, is another intervention to increase solar power production. While registrations surpassed the target applications submitted by consumers till July end, being around 16 lakh against the target of one crore households, this points towards glitches in the system that need to be rectified. The scheme promises an assured annual saving of about Rs 15,000 for a household consuming up to 300 units a month, with a rooftop solar unit of 3-kilowatt capacity. The delay in pushing the subsidised solar rooftop scheme is attributed to the apprehension of power distribution companies of losing out on revenue. The government needs to revisit the scheme to address the concerns of consumers as well as power distribution companies and make it equally attractive for both key stakeholders. The coal lobby too, having vested interest in delaying grid-connected solar projects, cannot be ruled out. More consumers will be interested in transitioning to renewable energy only when they find out that the process is simple, rewarding financially, the supply of electricity is uninterrupted, and metering is transparent. Their awareness of the importance of renewable energy in the decarbonisation of the energy sector alone is not going to increase the demand for rooftop solar installations. Population growth and economic growth have fuelled the electricity demand in the country. Industrial expansion is necessary to meet consumer demand for better roads, housing, infrastructure for healthcare, education, etc. Decarbonisation of the energy sector will remain stuck at the stage of awareness building on the importance of it if the demand for electricity from alternative sources does not gain ground among consumers. Until that happens, the country has no option but to keep mining and burning coal to generate electricity.