Does US visa policy foretell anything for Bangladesh?

 Amitava Mukherjee

(The author is a Kolkata-based senior journalist and commentator)

As the US has started giving effect to its Bangladesh-specific visa policy, which was announced by the former’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the recent past and would restrict visas for any Bangladeshi national believed to be undermining the democratic electoral process in Bangladesh, a new dimension has come up in subcontinental politics with serious connotations for India. The US barb is clearly aimed at the Awami League, as opposition parties in Dhaka are pressing for a caretaker government before Bangladesh goes to polls in early 2024 as, in their opinion,’ no free and fair election is possible with Sheikh Hasina in the Prime Minister’s chair’.

The issue is enough to raise eyebrows in international circles. True, the US has imposed similar visa restrictions on Sierra Leone as well. But Bangladesh is a case apart. Geopolitically, it is much more important than Sierra Leone. Is the US trying to teach Bangladesh a lesson because of the latter’s growing proximity to China? After all, the political authorities of Bangladesh have been reported in the media to be admitting that their country’s relations with China are economic, while Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi are almost umbilical. So the admission is there. This is enough to infuriate the US, as it is now at loggerheads with China over its Indo-Pacific policy. Hasina Wazed, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, has thrown down the gauntlet by directly criticizing the US over the latter’s Bangladesh policy.

But how does it hold a serious connotation for India? Well, the reason lies in the sudden growth of some Islamic fundamentalist organisations that aim to topple the Hasina-led government, which is still India’s best bet in Bangladesh. Although Hasina has also compromised with Islamic fundamentalist organisations during her rule, she is still perceived in New Delhi as a bulwark against fundamentalist Islam in Bangladesh.

But how complex is the situation in Bangladesh? The Awami League government is no doubt a bit nervous about the US stand. In order to contain Islamic fundamentalism, it has in fact compromised with it on several counts, and as general elections in Bangladesh are only four months away, fundamentalist forces are trying to regroup there again. But in spite of the efforts of the Sheikh Hasina-led government to come to a mutual understanding with groups of Islamic militant forces, ominous shadows are hovering.

A new militant outfit named Jamatul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS) has come into existence, incorporating members of the Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Ansar al Islam (AAI), and Harkatul Jihad al Islami, Bangladesh (HUJI-B). The JAFHS, seven of whose members were arrested in October last, is now perhaps working as an umbrella organisation of several militant outfits. Of its constituents, the AAI and the HUJI-B have connections with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, respectively.

But the Bangladesh government must be watching with a bated breath the plans and programmes of the Hefazat-e-Islami, the Qaumi Madrassa-based Islamic militant organisation, which can perhaps boast of the largest number of memberships among organisations of its genre. Over the years, Hasina has tried to placate this organisation in various ways without much success. The reason was clear: Hasina wanted to use the Hefazat against the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and its alliance partner, the Jamaat-e-Islami.

But pandering to Hefazat’s demand by the Awami League has helped the fundamentalist lobby instead. Hefazat wanted punishment for secular activists, the inferior status of women in society, and even control over governance and the judiciary. Hasina gave it more than it wanted. Secular activists and bloggers were arrested for pursuing ‘anti-Islamic activities’. In 2017, seventeen stories and poems written by secular and non-Muslim writers were removed from Bangladesh textbooks as demanded by the Hefazat. On top of it, the statue of Lady Justice was removed from the Bangladesh Supreme Court compound following objections from Hefazat. Moreover, the Sheikh Hasina government passed a bill bestowing equality of status on academic degrees given by a Hefazat-controlled madrassa with those of a secular university.

There is a buzz in Bangladeshi political circles that Hefazat has weakened and the Awami League has been able to gobble it up. Nothing is further from the truth. Hefazat indulged in widespread violent protests during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Bangladesh in March 2021 on the occasion of the country’s 50 years of independence. Violence continued even after Modi’s departure and ultimately resulted in the deaths of 11 people.

Ideologically, all the militant outfits are closer to the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami than the Awami League. A phase of new groups and regroupings among the fundamentalists is going on. There is a possibility that the BNP and the Jamaat may boycott the poll if their demand for a caretaker government is not accepted. If the other fundamentalist groups join them and bring about widespread public anarchy, and there is a distinct possibility in this regard, then the situation will be really dicey not only for Sheikh Hasina but for India too.