Dynamics of the ongoing Lok Sabha polls

Dipak Kurmi

(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.)

As phase four of the Lok Sabha polls concludes, it’s evident that we’re now past the halfway mark of this electoral marathon. The opposition, spearheaded by the Congress-led INDIA bloc, has successfully shifted the narrative, emphasising that this isn’t a one-sided battle; rather, it’s a contest being fiercely fought on all fronts, across every constituency.

Social media and private WhatsApp groups are abuzz with the typical array of stock market predictions and illicit ‘satta’ gambling forecasts. Yet, beneath the surface, a prevailing sentiment persists: the unwavering belief that the BJP will secure governance regardless of the circumstances. This sentiment seems rooted in the immense faith BJP supporters place in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, recognising him as a figure of immense mass appeal.

While it’s undeniable that the opposition appeared fragmented at the onset of the campaign, they have gradually shaped a narrative of a closely contested battle, though its substance remains uncertain. This newfound image may ultimately be no more than a fleeting illusion. Nonetheless, the Congress campaign in the 2024 elections, regardless of its outcome, is poised to spark discussions among political analysts for years to come.

The groundwork for Congress’ electoral strategy can be traced back to the Udaipur conclave of 2022. Declarations made at the ‘Udaipur Shivir’ emphasised the party’s commitment to revitalising its organisational structure. This initiative was particularly significant amidst the backdrop of internal dissent, notably within the inner circle of Rahul Gandhi. One commendable decision made during the 2022 Rajasthan gathering was the commencement of elections for the All India Congress Committee presidency. This move injected vitality into the party, and in Mallik Arjun Kharge, Congress has found a formidable campaigner whose articulate messages resonate strongly with the electorate.

In contrast to the Vidhan Sabha polls held a few months prior in the four states, the leadership has strategically solidified the alliance despite facing initial turbulence with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s departure from the coalition. While some argue that the appointment of Kharge rather than Nitish as the alliance’s chair was imposed, Nitish’s historical stance against the BJP has always been under scrutiny.

In its second strategic manoeuvre, Congress is leveraging the collective strength of its alliance partners to maintain its position. As part of this approach, the party is fielding candidates in only 328 constituencies this election, a significant decrease from the 421 seats it contested in 2019. The original plan was to contest 330 seats, but setbacks such as the rejection of a candidate’s papers in Surat and another candidate withdrawing in Indore prompted adjustments.

The Congress within the INDIA Alliance has established a coalition network broader than that of the United People’s Alliance (UPA). This shift signifies a transition for the party, moving from a position of dominance to that of a senior partner within the bloc. Notably, some members of the alliance, such as the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab, have opted not to engage in alliances, further emphasising the Congress’s altered role.

According to party officials leading the alliance efforts, the current coalition-building approach is notably more pragmatic than that of 2019. A prime example of this shift is evident in Uttar Pradesh. In the previous elections, Congress went solo, contesting all 80 seats in the state without major allies, facing off against both the BJP and the SP-BSP alliance. However, out of the 67 seats contested, the party managed to secure just one victory, with Sonia Gandhi emerging triumphant in Rae Bareli.

In its latest electoral strategy, the party has forged alliances with regional players like the Samajwadi Party, significantly reducing its contested seats to a mere 17, a drastic drop from the previous election’s 67. This tactical move, insiders reveal, aims to allocate resources judiciously, focusing on winnable battles rather than spreading thin across the electoral landscape. A similar recalibration is evident in West Bengal, where the party, having contested 40 seats in the previous election, now narrows its focus to just 14, delegating the rest to its Left allies. This strategic realignment extends to other states as well, reflecting a nuanced approach to maximising electoral gains. In its pursuit of electoral dominance akin to the Congress’s remarkable performance in 1984, where it secured over 400 seats, the BJP faces a formidable challenge. It’s crucial to note that the Congress’s landslide victory was propelled by a potent sympathy wave following the tragic assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. As the BJP endeavours to replicate such historic success, it must navigate the complex currents of contemporary politics, mindful of the absence of comparable seismic events, to galvanise voter sentiment.

The BJP in 2024 distinguishes itself from the Congress of 1984 by virtue of its steadfast commitment to its ideological agenda. This unwavering dedication has cultivated a deep sense of loyalty among its cadre base, ensuring a robust and committed campaign machinery. However, the expansion of its pollen apparatus presents a double-edged sword. On one hand, if there’s an undercurrent of support, it could yield significant dividends for the party. Yet, on the other hand, in the face of voter apathy or indifference, the BJP’s performance must not dip below a certain threshold—akin to a “reserve price” in commercial terms.

Thus, while the party stands to gain from its ideological coherence and organizational strength, it must also guard against complacency and adapt to the shifting dynamics of public opinion.