Global food crisis - a growing geopolitical issue

Siddharth Roy

(siddharth01.roy@gmail.com)

Recently, India has banned the export of wheat. Not only India but 13 other countries have banned the export of essential food items like wheat, sugar, and palm oil. These major policy decisions have led to growing problems of food shortage and inflation. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization recorded a 55.2% increase in the Food Price Index between May 2020 and February 2022. These rising prices due to food shortage have led to protests in various developing countries like Iran, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Chile, Peru and others. In Ecuador, the protests had taken a violent form due to which the President had to declare an emergency in major parts of the country. According to David Beasley, head of UNWFP, food crises can further lead to food riots, famine, and mass migration in the world. In such a situation some experts predict a world war over food.

According to the Global Report on Food Crisis, around 193 million people in around 53 countries have faced the issue of food crisis in 2021, which is a rise of about 40 million in comparison to the data for 2020. 70% of people facing hunger crises belong to just 10 countries which include Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan, Yemen, Nigeria, South Sudan, Congo and Haiti. Global Network against Food Crises says that internal conflicts, economic problems and climate change are mainly responsible for food shortages globally. An increase in global temperature is leading to dry rivers and ponds, while the groundwater level is also decreasing due to its overuse. Moreover, pollution is leading to a shortage of available potable water as well. Soil erosion is another such issue leading to decreasing crop yield and affecting productivity. Every year around 24-40 billion tonnes of fertile soil is getting wasted. Heat waves due to global warming, on the other hand, are leading to the destruction of crops. This year, heat waves led to the loss of about 20-60% of crops for the farmers growing wheat in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Apart from all this, climatic change also gives rise to parasites and diseases that damage crops. According to a study by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, due to climatic change, there will be a drastic reduction in food production by 2100. There is a possibility of a reduction in corn production by 20 to 45 per cent. Similarly, wheat production is likely to decrease by 5 to 50 per cent. Rice production is likely to reduce by 20 to 30 per cent and the production of soybeans might reduce by 30 to 60 per cent. While food production will reduce by 2100, the population will increase and reach 11 billion. So water shortage, infertility of soil and rising global temperature will be overall responsible for food shortages in various countries. Another major issue which has impacted the global food supply chain is the Russia-Ukraine war. Before Russia attacked Ukraine, the world economy was already facing internal conflicts, climatic changes, Covid-19 and rising inflation. Covid-19 has already pushed millions of people into poverty and the inflationary prices of food products have created hunger issues for many. To add to this misery, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has deepened the problem of the food crisis. Russia and Ukraine are one of the largest exporters of wheat in the world. They contribute about 25% of the world's total wheat exports. Apart from this, they also export sunflower seed oil and corn. Due to destruction in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, the global food supply chain is disrupted. According to the report of the World Food Programme of the United Nations, eight months before the war started, Ukraine had exported 51 million metric tonnes of grain. The blockade of the Black Sea by Russia due to the war prevented Ukraine from exporting food items. Countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa were dependent upon Russia and Ukraine's wheat exports and are facing food shortages. Thus, they are being forced to purchase food grains from Canada and Australia but due to long distance and exorbitant transportation costs, the food prices have increased manifold. Considering the rising inflation in the global market, there are bound to be many repercussions worldwide. One such repercussion was the banning of exports of food items to protect the local markets from the adverse effects of inflation. Since the war between Russia and Ukraine, more than 20 countries have imposed export licenses and taxes on the exports of food products. Even India banned wheat export due to the destruction of the wheat crop, scarcity in the global market and maintaining domestic food supply. India banned sugar exports as well. According to the Government, the main objective of banning sugar exports is to keep adequate stock in our country and to control the price of sugar. The main problem with the export ban is that after a country's export ban, other countries also start banning exports one by one in an attempt to protect their domestic market. Now all these factors together are increasing the prices of food items, leading to large-scale inflation. The people from the poor and marginalized sections of society are most affected by this. They spend most of their income on food and essential commodities. And now due to rising inflation, they are not able to even arrange food for themselves, leading to acute hunger issues globally.

History has seen various riots based on food products like bread, potato and flour. Food shortage was also a reason for the French Revolution. And such an atmosphere is brewing up in the world today, which may lead to a world war for food. This problem of food shortage needs to be checked. The World Bank suggested the need to produce 50% more food to address the problem of global food shortage. Moreover, the world food system is controlled by corporate elites and developed countries which needs to change. Poverty and inequality need to be addressed. The governments of the world need to develop a sustainable world food system to ensure food security for the people of the world. And with respect to India, the government can ensure food security by improving its storage facility, improving food management, decreasing food wastage, widening of coverage of PDS and expanding the food basket. These robust steps can tackle and address the global problem of food shortage.