High stakes of NE in Myanmar peace

India expressing concern over the growing influx of refugees from Myanmar into northeastern states at the United Nations is a timely intervention to attract global attention to a spiralling problem in the neighbourhood. Restoration of peace and democracy in Myanmar has become an urgent necessity to prevent the humanitarian crisis resulting from the prevailing political turmoil in Myanmar from pushing the northeastern region into a bottomless pit of refugee crises. The refugee population from Myanmar and Bangladesh has risen alarmingly, and violent clashes in the two neighbouring countries have led to a fresh influx of displaced people through the Mizoram-Myanmar and Mizoram-Bangladesh orders. The Mizoram government agreeing to record the biometric details of about 34,000 refugees has set the ball rolling for documenting the details of the refugees in the state. The Mizoram government initially opposed the Central Government’s directive to record biometric details of refugees, as there was apprehension among refugees from Myanmar and Bangladesh about their deportation after documentation of these details. The state government subsequently changed its stance as the central government assured that no refugee would be deported until the restoration of peace. The Mizoram is now awaiting detailed instructions from the Ministry of Home Affairs to start the process. The ethnic affinity of Mizos with the displaced people prompted Mizoram to provide shelter to refugees from the two countries and arrange education for the children of displaced families. The Mizoram government has been providing assistance to the refugees from its own resources, while the central government too has been releasing funds to the state government to assist them. While raising the issue at the UN, India flagged grave concerns over the challenges of translation crimes such as drug and human trafficking due to the growing refugee crisis on its northeastern frontier. The arrest of several Myanmar refugees in Mizoram on charges of involvement in the trafficking of arms and ammunition and illicit drug trafficking speaks volumes about India’s apprehension being a legitimate concern that cannot be brushed aside. Manipur, on the other hand, has already initiated recording the biometrics of “illegal migrants” from Myanmar and their deportation in batches. India is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol thereon. All foreign nationals (including asylum seekers) are governed by the provisions contained in the Foreigners Act, 1946; the Registration of Foreigners Act, 1939; the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920; and the Citizenship Act, 1955, and rules and orders made thereunder. The central government issued a Standard Operating Procedure in 2011 that was amended in 2019 and must be followed by law enforcement agencies when dealing with foreign nationals who claim to be refugees. The absence of a national law on refugees explains the complexities of handling the current influx of refugees from Myanmar and the different approaches taken by state governments in the region. Deepening bilateral relations between India and Myanmar requires India to be cautious so as not to hamper its strategic interests. For India, Myanmar is the gateway to ASEAN as it seeks to deepen multilateral relations with ASEAN nations. On the other hand, the northeastern region is central to India’s Act East Policy for deepening engagement with ASEAN. Peace and stability in Myanmar and in the northeast region are of vital importance for unlocking the economic opportunities in the neighbourhood. India has reiterated its commitment to support Myanmar’s transition to an inclusive federal democracy and insisted that peaceful resolutions through constructive dialogue to end the current conflict must be “Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned.” India also asserted at the UN meeting that it has been making consistent efforts towards peace, stability, and development in Myanmar in the form of humanitarian assistance, people-centric projects, and building capacities in democratic systems and practices in the neighbouring country. The issues flagged by India have put the spotlight on other key measures like ending the Free Movement Regime (FMR) and fencing the India-Myanmar border to secure the international border as a response to the geopolitics in the neighbourhood. Both Myanmar and India agreed to introduce a new travel regime to streamline border crossing and replace the FMR. The new travel regime will facilitate the transborder movement of people from the two neighbouring countries based on valid passports and visas. The Ministry of Home Affairs recommended scrapping the FMR to ensure internal security and maintain demographic structure in northeastern states. Migrant population from Bangladesh changing demography in Assam and Bangladesh and posing an existential threat to the indigenous population justify the move to scrap the FMR. As India’s deepening trade and commerce with ASEAN hold promises to transform the economies of Northeastern states, the restoration of peace and democracy in Myanmar continues to remain the topmost concern for people in the region. It is hoped that global efforts will help fast-track the restoration of peace in Myanmar to end the uncertainties in the northeastern region.