High-stakes phase for regional parties

 The final phase of polling in Assam is crucial for the regional parties in the state. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the United People’s Party, Liberal (UPPL), and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) have high stakes in this last phase. The AGP is contesting in two of the four Lok Sabha seats-Barpeta and Dhubri-and the UPPL and BPF are locked in a poll battle for the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat. The AGP and UPPL, being constituents of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition government, have fielded their candidates as the common candidate of the ruling alliance. The BJP wants its regional allies to remain influential so that their support base does not shift to the Congress or other opposition parties. The transfer of votes remains the most challenging part of any pre-poll electoral alliance. The parties, be it in ruling coalitions or opposition alliances, are wary of their traditional support bases, permanently shifting to the party fielding the common candidate. If that happens, the parties supporting the candidates of alliance partners lose bargaining power for subsequent elections for which they plan to continue the alliance, or are rather compelled to continue the alliance. The two major national parties in this election, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Congress, are banking on the electoral performance of their regional allies for the number game. In the final phase, the BJP is contesting only in one—Guwahati Lok Sabha seat and its ally AGP in two, and UPPL in one. The Congress, on the other hand, is contesting in all four seats, while its two regional allies, Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal, have lent support and are campaigning for the candidates of the grand old party. This presents a unique situation where voters could be choosing between the two major electoral alliances rather than the politics and ideologies of the party fielding the common candidate. The BPF, on the other hand, has kept distance from both the ruling and opposition alliances. This has made the election to the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat triangular, leaving the voters with the choice of both regional and national issues to pick up when deciding their mandate. For the three regional parties, the poll performance is critical to consolidating positions ahead of the next assembly poll due in 2026. The UPPL and BPF have also contested each other in the second phase. For the two Bodo political parties, the performance in the second and third phases could also be a prelude to the elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC), which are due next year. The voting patterns for parliamentary, assembly, and local bodies’ polls are not the same, and therefore, rushing to a conclusion based on the performance in Lok Sabha polls could be erroneous. Nevertheless, the poll outcome signifies the electoral strength of parties and candidates, which also provides them with an opportunity to return to the drawing board to devise new strategies for future elections. The performance of the Bodo parties in this Lok Sabha poll could lead to the realignment of political forces for the BTC, or assembly polls, due to which elections to the two constituencies of Kokrajhar and Darrang-Udalguri are keenly watched by pollsters. Another key player, the All India United Democratic Front, also has high stakes in the final phase, with party supremo Badruddin Ajmal seeking re-election from the Dhubri constituency and locked in a triangular contest with the AGP and the Congress. The AIUDF performance will be indicative of the electoral choices of a major constituency—the Muslim voters—and will keep the parties and their strategists guessing about its implications in the next assembly polls. The turnout of voters plays a crucial role in the poll outcome. Due to the delimitation of constituencies, the turnout of past parliamentary elections and this Lok Sabha poll is not comparable to predicting an outcome, but the poll percentage will certainly reflect the mood of the voters. Irrespective of the choices of electors, a higher poll percentage is always crucial for strengthening Indian democracy. The Election Commission of India has been making every possible effort to ensure that no voter is left behind and that every voter comes to the polling booth to exercise his or her franchise to strengthen democracy. For the regional parties too, poll percentage will be a key indicator of the future of regional politics and whether their ideologies and political positions continue to enthuse the electorate the way they did in past elections. Demographic equations make regional issues key poll planks in Assam, and this election is no different. Whether regional parties have been able to champion these issues and influence the voters will be known only after the results are announced on June 4. Poll analysts will also have to factor in the difference between regional parties going alone and being allies of national parties. Stakes are very high for all regional parties in this final phase of polling.