Impact of Pakistan’s political and economic turmoil in India

Lata Moni Das

(The writer can be reached at latadas2020@gmail.com)

Normalcy is being eroded in our neighbouring country as a result of disruptions in the economy and politics. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal need urgent humanitarian help due to a worsening food crisis. Pakistan is in crisis, from inflation to political instability, and people are struggling to make ends meet.

The economy of Pakistan has been dependent on aid. At the budding stage, aid works to run the economy of any country, but today, 75-year-old Pakistan is realizing that aid is a problem, not a solution. Slower growth and skyrocketing inflation have crippled the backbone of the country of 240 million people. Aid from the IMF and support from friendly countries are the only hope. A looming crisis in the neighbourhood cannot be ignored by India. Now, the question arises as to what the Pakistan crisis means for India?

However, there would be some hope had it only been the economy that was ailing, but polarised opinions, a lack of social cohesion, and aggressive behaviour by the Taliban are making the situation an uncertain one. Rising tension between the Tahrik-i-Taliban and Pakistan Taliban might strengthen their position in the country, which would be a headache for India. Hence, immediately after Kabul fell to the Taliban, India-supported UNSC Resolution 2593 forbade the use of Afghan territory for terrorist attacks. It is also seen that since Taliban rule, terrorist activity has risen in Pakistan, be it in Baluchistan or Pakhtunkhwa.Their main difference is with the Pakistani army in the context of applying Sharia law. India is worried because anti-Indian groups Lashkar-e-Taliba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, who are in favour of Sharia Law, are very much present in Afghanistan, and seeing the growing threat of the Pakistani Taliban in the current situation, it poses a threat in J&K. Taliban consider Kashmir as independent India, With the rise of Tahrike Talibban amid both political and economic turmoil in Pakistan, India would also have to deal with foreign fighters entering India via Pakistan, aiming to further fuel the Kashmiri insurgency.

Several UN reports say Pakistan’s financial crisis is the result of supporting terrorism and the strong presence of terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and DAESH. It is likely that high inflation, political instability, and religious intolerance will contribute to an escalation of terrorism in Pakistan and give rise to extremist organisations in India that will be able to gain a larger presence. Furthermore, the possibility of nuclear-armed terrorist regimes in Pakistan has grown from a fear to a serious strategic challenge that even the world cannot ignore. National security advisor Mr. Ajit Doval’s recent visit to Moscow, where he discussed India’s security concerns, shows India’s readiness to face any consequences that may arise from the triggering of unrest in Pakistan.

Moreover, China does not allow Pakistan to become weaker by undermining Indian sovereignty. China’s influence grows in weaker Pakistan in the form of infrastructure or loans in order to serve as a counterbalance to India. The China-Pakistan economic corridor is one such example, which India has firmly and consistently opposed because it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. There is some good news for India amid the crisis in that the China-Pakistan economic corridor has been slowing down due to the ongoing crisis in Pakistan and China’s economic slowdown. The majority of its projects have not yet begun, and the ones that have already begun are incurring losses and becoming liabilities.

Now, when Pakistan approached Beijing for 6.3 billion dollars, China did not respond due tosince its economy is also sluggish. Another reason could be that China prefers a more stable government in Pakistan and rising security risk in Paksitan. Pakistan’s growing debt to China worries New Delhi as it may lead to Islamabad becoming security risks thered accommodating Beijing’s larger ambitions, which would be against India’s interests. Besides, Pakistan goes bankrupt tomorrow; China may seek alternate routes to the ports of the Indian Ocean Region (IBesides, ifently, the Indian government has urged China to restructure its loans in a transparent manner and to take losses on loans to struggling economies.

In spite of some relief from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Pakistan has roughly $30 billion worth of foreign debt owed to China. The debt of the country is three times greater than its IMF debt, and is greater than the total of its borrowings from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank combined. Without aid from the IMF, the country will have no choice but to lay off workers, leaving the masses in financial difficulty. Since the economy in Pakistan is collapsing, India might have a sudden increase in refugees. It will be a burden on the economy. It can also disturb law and order of the country. India is trying to end illegal immigration. Illegal immigrants and refugees have been a concern for many years since they threaten the socio-political fabric of any country.

During the next few months, Pakistan needs $20 billion to clear its debt obligations. The Dawn newspaper reported that Pakistan would receive $9 billion in financial support from China and $4 billion from Saudi Arabia on top of about $20 billion in investments. On 12th February, immediately after IMF team left Pakistan after giving a hard time at unimaginable crisis. An increase in power tariffs, an end to subsidies, and a revised circular debt management strategy were approved by the cabinet in order to meet the demands of the IMF, though the rise in taxes created more challenges in normal life.

Does this crisis in Pakistan present any hope for India? In the midst of this crisis, when Pakistan decided to begin talking to India, India may take advantage of the opportunity to settle down the Kashmir talks as well as establish peace along the border. The question is whether India has any hope when Pakistan’s government is weakened and elections are pending under economic uncertainty. By the time their new government is formed, India will be busy with its own election, which brings its own compulsions and challenges. There is an alternative opinion circulating in the country from several politicians and commentators that India should help Pakistan. While helping Pakistan on humanitarian grounds, we cannot forget Pakistan’s highly unpredictable nature. In 1999, we saw a rise in terrorism in J&K, but we were positive about the relationship at that time, due to the efforts of then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who attended SAARC meetings and bilateral meetings in 1988 and 1989. The same thing happened in the 1999 Kargil War; PM Vajpayee made a historic trip to Lahore at that time, looking forward to a positive relationship between them. In spite of Pakistan’s interest in peace and dialogue, India must be aware of its inconsistent behavior, which is bolstered by Pakistani military strength.