India and Central Asia

Amitava Mukherjee

(The author is a senior journalist and commentator)

For India’s foreign policy, the most important news in the month of May is New Delhi acquiring the right to operate Iran’s Chabahar port for ten years. It means the opening up of the vast Central Asian market to India. It also means the possibility of increased competition between India and China for economic as well as geostrategic influence over the vast Central Asian Region (CAR).

Another important development has taken place in international politics: the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. It may have a topsy-turvy effect in a Middle Eastern geostrategic scenario. Moreover, the United States has already threatened the possibility of sanctions in the event of any country cooperating with Iran for the development of Chabahar port.

One reason for it is certainly the frozen relations between America and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other. There is a deeper reason, too. The United States is afraid of seeing any other country extend its influence in Central Asia.

What are the factors that make Central Asia so important in international political chess? We will come to it later on. But first of all, the importance of Chabahar in Indo-Central Asian affairs.

India has two options for carrying on trade with the Central Asian countries. The first is China, which has borders with Russia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan. But India has only three trade posts with China. Of them, Nathu La is said to be the most used. But for someone who has gone to Nathu La from Gangtok, the journey is nightmarish, and cargo-filled trucks are always prone to tip over the narrow, winding roads into the deep gorges. Moreover, there are always tensions in the Sino-Indian border areas, and taking advantage of them, China may close the trading post at any time.

The second option is to ship materials via sea routes to Iranian ports, then transport the goods to Afghanistan using Iran’s rail and road networks, and ultimately offload the cargo into Central Asia through its border with Afghanistan. But for doing this, a suitable Iranian port has to be chosen. The one most used by most of the shipping companies in the world is Bandar Abbas, situated on the Strait of Hormuz. But it will not serve Indian interests.

Because the distance from Bandar Abbas to Afghanistan is too great and too hazardous for any cargo transport. Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz is a very sensitive shipping lane. About 20 percent of the world’s petroleum trade passes through it, and the big powers are always daggers drawn at one another for control over it. A few years ago, the US was even ready to go to war to retain control over this Strait.

So using Bandar Abbas is not a workable proposition for India.

The solution lies in the Chabahar port, as it is situated on the Indian Ocean. It’s distance from Indian ports like Mumbai and Kandla is much less than what it is from Bandar Abbas. India’s involvement with the port’s development and upgrading has been there for quite a few years, but the just-concluded 10-year agreement is a totally different ballgame as it would mark India’s permanent footprint in Central Asian affairs.

India has historical links with Central Asian countries. During the Kushan period, in ancient times, there were vibrant relations between Central Asia and India. The Turks of the Delhi Sultanate were from Central Asia. Babur, the founder of the Mughal Empire in India, came from Uzbekistan. Over time, the linkage gradually dwindled. Later on, much of the Central Asian region came under the ambit of the Russian Empire. After the Russian Revolution of 1917, the CAR witnessed great developments, which have, however, witnessed hiccups after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

One reason behind such a halt in the overall development of the CAR lies in the fact that the region is landlocked and has to depend on Russia, China, Turkey, and the Baltic states for port facilities.

Taking advantage of the situation, China has bolstered its trade with the CAR to a level of USD 100 billion, while India’s trade volume is stuck at a paltry USD 2 billion. But the combined economy of the region stands at around USD 340 billion, with varying levels of development and purchasing power in each country. Moreover, the CAR countries have abundant mineral resources such as petroleum, natural gas, aluminium, gold, silver, coal, and uranium.

With which one of the CAR countries should India tie its knots first? Well, the region has enough resources, particularly uranium in Kazakhstan, gold and rare earth materials in Uzbekistan, and natural gas in Turkmenistan. But the country that should attract India’s attention first is Uzbekistan. Let us see why it is so.

Uzbekistan is the most populous country in the CAR. So, there is a good market for Indian consumer goods. Compared to some other countries in the region, it lags a bit behind in terms of wealth and development. But its relative backwardness is sure not to remain static as the country’s administration is gradually coming out of slumber and various international agencies are on their way to invest in Uzbekistan in a very big way. The result is visible. It’s average annual GDP growth rate is more than 8 percent. The country is rich in petroleum, natural gas, coal, and uranium. It has invested nearly USD 55 billion for the development of its industry and infrastructure sectors.

So India’s 10-year-long involvement in the Chabahar port may be a game changer in international politics. It is certain to give a fillip to the International North South Transport Corridor, which has 13 members, the most important of them being India, Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan. It will bypass the traditional sea route journey through the Suez Canal and is certain to play a great role in the economic development of Asia and parts of Europe.