India-Russia strategic partnership: Modi’s visit and geopolitical implications

Dipak Kurmi

(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia occurred at a critical
 moment in international relations. The global order is experiencing significant upheaval, characterized by escalating conflicts and rivalries among major powers, alongside emerging challenges in India’s security landscape. On the northern frontier, India’s neighbour has yet to withdraw its troops from the Depsang and Demchok regions in Ladakh, areas occupied in recent years, and is actively constructing new fortifications to increase pressure on Delhi. In Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, supported by Pakistan, continues to create instability. Furthermore, the United States, a nation with whom India has developed a promising relationship, is now meddling in India’s domestic affairs. This includes providing sanctuary to Sikh separatist elements and criticizing India’s policies towards its minorities and democratic system.

Given the current sensitive climate, it is unsurprising that Prime Minister Modi opted for an official visit to Russia, a trip that had been long overdue. Historically, Russia has proven to be a dependable ally for India, offering crucial support on numerous occasions and providing advanced technologies in defence, space, atomic energy, and other sectors when other nations were reluctant to do so. Russia has consistently respected India’s sovereignty and refrained from interfering in its internal affairs. Prior to this visit, Prime Minister Modi had already met President Putin 16 times over the past decade, highlighting the strong rapport between the two leaders.

India and Russia share a unique and privileged strategic partnership. Prime Minister Modi’s visit provided an opportunity to discuss crucial global, regional, and bilateral issues with President Putin. Demonstrating the significance Russia places on its relationship with India, Prime Minister Modi was welcomed at the airport by Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, a higher-ranking official than the Deputy Prime Minister who greeted Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit in March of the previous year. Highlighting the close ties between the two nations, President Putin hosted a private dinner for Prime Minister Modi on July 8, followed by official talks the next day.

During his visit, Prime Minister Modi described Russia as a “such-dukh ka saathi aur bharosemand dost” (a reliable, all-weather friend), emphasizing that their strong relationship is well-known in every Indian household. Despite the current complex and challenging geopolitical environment, the bond between India and Russia has remained steadfast. Modi expressed to Putin that the solution to the Ukraine conflict cannot be found on the battlefield, highlighting his sorrow over the tragic deaths of innocent children and referencing the deadly strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv on July 8. He stressed the need for a peaceful resolution through diplomatic negotiations and assured that India would offer all possible assistance to achieve this goal. Notably, PM Modi is the first world leader to unequivocally tell Putin in Moscow that Russia’s war against Ukraine should come to an end.

On the bilateral front, Prime Minister Modi’s visit aimed to bolster food and energy security, enhance trade and investments, improve connectivity, and seek advanced nuclear, space, and defence technologies to strengthen India’s indigenous defence industry. The two leaders set an ambitious goal of achieving balanced and sustainable trade worth $100 billion by 2030. To reach this target, they planned to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers and initiate negotiations for a free trade agreement on goods. Additionally, they agreed to promote bilateral trade settlements using their national currencies and to find mutually acceptable solutions for the insurance and re-insurance of goods. The construction of units 3-6 at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant is to be expedited, along with the joint manufacturing of nuclear power plant components. The leaders also committed to enhancing cooperation in the peaceful use of outer space, including human spaceflight programmes, satellite navigation, planetary exploration, and rocket engine development.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit underscored India’s strategic autonomy and sent a clear message to major global powers: India is a formidable force that cannot be coerced and has diverse avenues to advance its interests. While the US rallied its NATO allies in Washington to exert pressure on Russia, Modi’s trip demonstrated that Russia is not isolated and enjoys the genuine friendship of both nations opposed to the US, such as China, Iran, and North Korea, as well as strategic and non-aligned countries like India. By meticulously balancing his engagements, Modi communicated to Washington that he played a significant role in urging Putin to put a swift end to the Ukraine conflict.

Under the surface of a ‘no limits partnership,’ the China-Russia relationship has recently shown signs of subtle rivalry. President Putin’s visits to North Korea and Vietnam, both close allies of Beijing, highlighted this competition. In response, President Xi visited Kazakhstan and Tajikistan last week while attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, countries that Russia views as within its sphere of influence. Putin leveraged Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow to signal to China that Russia has other allies and is not solely reliant on Beijing.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit conveyed a strong message to Washington: India would not tolerate unnecessary interference in its internal affairs and could leverage its relationship with Russia, if needed. It also signalled to Beijing that its inflexible stance on withdrawing troops from occupied Indian territories would come at a cost. The visit emphasized that Russia is not under China’s influence and would use its alliance with India to counter China’s assertiveness. President Putin has invited Prime Minister Modi to return to Russia in October for the BRICS Summit, where India and Russia can collaborate to curb China’s dominance in both the BRICS and the SCO, offering alternatives to the countries of the Global South. Additionally, Modi has extended an invitation to Putin to visit India next year for the India-Russia Annual Summit. India has come to understand that its growing relationship with the US is largely transactional and that its interests are better served by strengthening ties with Russia.