Manipur crisis: Lack of pragmatic policy or equations of political interest?

Sekhar Dey 

(deesekhar@gmail.com)

The geopolitics, security dynamics, and social fabric of India’s northeastern region have long been exceptionally sensitive and intricate. Despite the immense strategic significance of this border adjacent belt, recent turbulence, particularly the unprecedented violence in Manipur, has raised profound questions regarding the Centre’s administrative competence and policy efficacy. A broad cross section of experts, policy analysts, and civil society advocates contend that the government’s current framework lacks a pragmatic, well-defined roadmap for reconstructing the Northeast and securing sustainable peace. In a region marked by multiethnic diversity, cultural pluralism, and complex cross-border equations, arriving at a resolution is virtually unattainable without a sound political vision.

Recent developments expose a glaring disconnect between the government’s declared policies and ground realities. Critical observers and political researchers argue that the prevailing strategy applied to the Northeast is designed less to serve the long-term peace and sustainable development of its populace and more to protect the entrenched interests of influential power blocs and political elites. This perspective is reinforced by the conspicuous accumulation of wealth among prominent political figures in the region, alongside widespread allegations of corruption. When ordinary citizens face acute threats to life and security, systemic abuse of power and personal enrichment among ruling circles lay bare the foundational weaknesses of the overarching policy architecture.

A primary catalyst fuelling the turmoil in Manipur, once a relatively tranquil and prosperous state, is the narco terrorism thriving along the Myanmar border. Illicit poppy cultivation across border hill tracts, transnational narcotics syndicates, human trafficking, and cross-border criminal networks have systematically eroded stability across the state. Credible concerns have been raised regarding elements within local political circles colluding with Myanmar-based armed outfits and narco syndicates for political leverage and material gain. Such illicit alignments have crippled the local law and order apparatus, turning historical social frictions between the Meitei and Kuki communities into an acute, violent conflict.

Recent history consistently demonstrates that the Northeast’s layered crises cannot be resolved solely through brute force or intermittent crackdowns by security forces. The critical missing link remains an authentic, inclusive political dialogue. Without transparent, substantive engagement involving all ethnic groups, community organisations, and local stakeholders, externally imposed directives and paper blueprints will yield few durable results. Attempting to manage the Northeast strictly through militarised or bureaucratic enforcement, absent structured political dialogue, remains an exercise in futility.

The urgency of this approach has been underscored by fresh violence in Manipur’s hill districts. At least nine people were reported killed and around 14 houses set ablaze during incidents across Kamjong, Ukhrul and Kangpokpi in October 2026, amid renewed tensions involving Naga and Kuki communities. These developments demonstrate that insecurity extends beyond the state’s earlier Meitei and Kuki confrontation. Peace building must therefore address intercommunity grievances through impartial investigations, accountability for killings, protection of civilians and sustained dialogue between affected communities. Restoring normal movement, enabling displaced families to return safely, and rebuilding confidence in public institutions are equally essential. Security measures must prevent further attacks while creating space for reconciliation, rather than allowing recurring violence to deepen ethnic divisions.

Against this backdrop, Manipur is slated to hold legislative assembly elections next February to March 2027. The central electoral narratives of both the ruling establishment and the opposition remain ambiguous. Given the state’s fractured reality, whether the forthcoming polls can genuinely stabilise and secure Manipur’s future remains deeply uncertain.

Restoring trust and enduring peace across Northeast India and Manipur in particular demands a fundamental policy reset. The imperative of the hour is to move past narrow self-interests and initiate an inclusive, transparent, people-centric political process. Any political nexus linked to cross-border drug syndicates and criminal networks must be dismantled unequivocally. Left unaddressed, prolonged instability in the Northeast will not remain localised; it poses a direct, systemic challenge to the broader sovereignty and security of India.

The treasure I have found cannot be described in words,

the mind cannot conceive of it

— Adi Shankaracharya