NE and Bangladesh

The fluid situation in Bangladesh is bound to have a major impact on the overall situation in the neighbourhood in general and in the Northeastern region in particular. One must remember that ties between India and Bangladesh have witnessed several complexities over the years, particularly due to shifting political dynamics in Bangladesh. It must also be kept in mind that while bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh had turned out to be one of the strongest in the subcontinent in the past decade or so, it was the Northeastern region that had accrued the maximum benefits from them. Bangladesh and Northeast India are, in fact, much more than just next-door neighbours. Geographically contiguous and culturally close, Bangladesh and the Northeast are natural markets for each other, and it is in this place that lies the most important key to the future of people living on both sides of the 2000+ km of international boundary that the Northeast shares with the world’s most densely populated country. Any kind of instability in Bangladesh immediately affects the Northeast’s connectivity, particularly river connectivity, which in turn causes an adverse impact on the region’s economy. Moreover, trans-boundary trade between the Northeast and Bangladesh had increased quite impressively in the past decade or so, which, among other things, had created livelihood opportunities for several thousand people on both sides. The change of guards in Dhaka has incidentally not been very favourable for India in that the protest movement, which includes students, supporters of the opposition Bangladesh National Party, and Islamists, has a clear anti-India bent. With Hasina taking temporary shelter in India, tempers in Bangladesh have reportedly become more pronounced against New Delhi. This has happened despite Bangladesh as a whole gaining the most out of the win-win situation that had been created by close cooperation between the two countries in the past decade or more. While Islamist forces, which are all known for their anti-India stance, appear to be calling the shots in post-Hasina Bangladesh, despite Md. Yunus repeatedly asserting that the interim regime headed by him would protect the minorities in that country, given the situation and also given the fact that China has increased its interest, if not its influence, in that country, India is left with few options and thus has to make the best of the bad situation. As was suggested by a Guwahati-based think tank recently, India has to engage with those in power, or those behind power, in order to ensure that economic activities between the two countries do not get further affected. It has been suggested that New Delhi should urgently articulate that it does not engage in partisan pursuits and that its foremost priority lies in cultivating and sustaining close relations with Bangladesh, its immediate and, until a few weeks ago, the best bilateral partner. This is particularly required in order to ascertain that the Northeast does not suffer. After all, the Northeast has been the foremost beneficiary, so far, of Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and ‘Act East’ policy.