Regionalism as political springboard

Floating of another new regional party – Raijor Dal -by the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS) and its allied organisations in Assam has not sprung any surprise as it was on expected lines. The new party has also spelt out its political line of opposing both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangha (RSS) and the Congress-All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) combinations. It has announced that the new party has been formed to defeat the BJP-RSS in 2021 Assembly polls and to prevent resurgence of Congress-AIUDF combine in the state politics. This political line of the new party has thrown cold waters on the proposal mooted by the Congress for grand alliance of all anti-BJP parties. The new party has divulged its plan to unite democratic regional parties in the state to defeat the BJP and allies. It has also set the condition for the Left parties that they can join the united platform of regional parties if they do not enter into an electoral alliance with the Congress and the AIUDF. Prior to launching of Raijor Dal, the KMSS sent feelers and also appealed publicly to Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), another new regional party floated recently under the aegis of the All Assam Students' Union (AASU) and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP), form a single regional party with one flag and one symbol. However, the, AASU, AJYCP as well as convenors' committee of the AJP evinced no interest in the proposal and took the stand that only the full-fledged committee of the AJP would be able take a call on that. The KMSS-backed regional party, however, refrained from criticizing the AGP in its written statement issued during the launching of the party. This leaves room for speculation that the party might explore tacit understanding with the AGP, if grand old regional party of the state continues its electoral alliance with the BJP. Existence of the several regional players is also likely to create confusion unless they manage to come together and reach some for understanding. The KMSS having some influence in some religious minority-dominated constituencies, its line of opposing Congress-AIUDF may shape new perception on the pattern of voting in the religious minority dominated constituencies. The Congress and AIUDF coming closer for an alliance shaped the perception in the political circle that minority votes may not be divided this time. Emergence of the new player is likely to shape the perception that the voting pattern in the minority area may not be on the lines expected by the Congress and the AIDUF. The Congress appeal for grand alliance has failed to evoke response as it has not spelt out if the alliance will be in the form of seat sharing or to be based on a common minimum agenda to be implemented if elected to power. The anti-BJP and anti-Congress-AIUDF political line of the Raijor Dal is seen to be an attempt to keep the door open to reach electoral understanding between the two new regional parties. The ruling coalition has reasons to rejoice at these development as it can hope to benefit from the split in the opposition into multiple camps. It is too early to conclude about the likely electoral performance of the new political parties. However, their confidence to emerge as key players in the political game of thrones stems from influence of the organizations backing them among the masses. The new party as well as AJP are pinning hopes on the support of the people for the movement against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019. Raijor Dal has vowed to pass resolution in the Assam Assembly against the CAA. This indicates that it is primarily banking on the CAA to garner electoral support. Converting the support for movement on the streets into electoral support is much easier said than done as people having different political affiliations often take part in a popular movement if the demands strikes the chord with them. The anti-CAA movement has lost its steam and the electorates are unlikely to focus on a single electoral plank. Besides, an opinion is building up among the electorates that the people's movement should not be used as springboard by leaders to fulfil their political ambitions. Performance of the AGP, a constituent of the ruling coalition also took birth in a more vigorous anti-foreigner agitation is another factor. It has lost the popular support as it failed to deliver on its promises of building a new Assam free from the problem of unabated influx of illegal migrants, strengthening the local economy and regionalism in the state. Given the experience of the AGP rule for two terms, winning the support of the electors will not be an easy task for the new regional parties. They should not count their chickens until they are hatched.