The password to unlock

The surge in number of COVID-19 positive cases in Guwahati during fresh lockdown of 14 days clamped on the capital city is a pointer to the pace of the community spread of the virus but is not unexpected in a pandemic situation. Lockdown is a response articulated to buy time to prevent overwhelming of the hospitals with critical COVID-19 patients and to create additional capacities to absorb the extra load of isolation of positive cases and providing life support to critical patients with comorbidities. The rising numbers in the city will provoke the citizens to contest the claim about the effectiveness of lockdown to keep the number of positive cases under check even though the debate around it has not yet settled the issue. The primary objective of the lockdown is to prevent spread of the infection and render the virus dormant by making the citizens stay indoors. However, it requires an ideal situation of zero movement of citizens which is easier said than done and is not possible. In a situation where lockdown requires to be relaxed to enable the citizens to replenish the stocks of essential commodities, it leaves the possibility of the undetected carrier of the virus coming into contact and infecting others during the relaxation. Besides, the possibility of virus infected people from other areas entering the city after the lockdown is lifted will always remain. The consensus has evolved among economists and policy makers that the lockdown has a cascading effect on the economy, and therefore, cannot be an effective response if the pandemic situation continues for a longer period. The capital city being the primary commercial hub of the entire Northeast region, keeping it under lockdown for long period will have a crippling effect on the economy of not just Assam but of the entire region. The "Report on Economy of Assam in the Backdrop of COVID-19 Pandemic" prepared by the State Innovation and Transformation Aayog, Government of Assam in collaboration with the OKD Institute of Social Change and Development has brought to light the scale of impact of lockdown on economy. The report states that nationwide lockdown caused a total loss in Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) worth Rs. 27463 crores in Assam at the current level of prices, which is about 8 per cent of the GSDP. "Agriculture and allied sector in the state alone is estimated to face a loss about Rs 3875 crore. Manufacturing and Construction sector lost Rs 4244 crore and Rs 2284 crore, respectively. Among the services the Trade and Hospitality sector has been a major loser with a loss of Rs 4945 crore. The Real Estate and Transport are two other sectors incurring substantial losses estimated at Rs 1882 crore and Rs 1523 crore respectively," the report adds. It has also sounded an alarm that "the unemployment rate in the state will increase up to the range of 16 to 27 per cent from the present level of 8 per cent. Consequently, it is found that the poverty rate may go up to about 50 per cent in the state." Only wearing of the face mask properly, maintenance of the physical safe distance and handwashing or sanitizing the hands will do the trick of keeping the virus at bay till vaccine is invented and reaches all nook and corners in the world. Even after the vaccine is invented, mass vaccination is not going to be an easy task and will require considerable time. Therefore, the COVID-19 virus will continue to play havoc whenever there is slightest slackness and the guard is lowered, till such a situation could be reached. Vast majority of the citizens have failed to see as to how the spread of the disease pose grave risk to the lives of their near and dear ones with comorbidity condition due to limited capacity of the public healthcare system. The lingering effect of the contraction in the economy has the potential to leave those affected due to loss of income and livelihood more vulnerable to not just COVID-19 virus but also many other diseases. The "India: Health of the Nation's States Report 2017" released in November 2019 brings to light that even though the burden of most infectious and associated diseases reduced in India during 1990 to 2016, it is still higher in the northeastern region compared to other regions. Any idea of either extending the lockdown in the city or imposing fresh lockdown in any other areas in the state will have to be weighed against its likely impact on the economy before any decision is taken. Knee-jerk reactions are often counterproductive. Aggressive health awareness drive, with active participation of community institutions and other stakeholders, playing the most critical role in reducing the spread of vector-borne diseases is time tested and is the password to solve the COVID-19 puzzle.