The population bomb: When bigger isn't better

(The author is a Professor of Management and Economics, formerly at IIBM (RBI) Guwahati. He can be contacted at m.bibhas@gmail.com)

Dr. Boidurjo Rick Mukhopadhyay

(The author, international award-winning development and management economist, formerly a Gold Medalist in Economics at Gauhati University)

The UN observed that it took until the early 1800s for the world population to reach one billion. Now we add a billion every 12-15 years. Today, the world population increases by about 83 million people every year. The French Institute of Demographic Studies projected that by the end of this century there will be 10 to 11 billion people on the planet. The world population will jump from the current 7.1 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050. In India, the same is assessed to rise from 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion, while that in China will remain at the same level [1.3 billion]. India's population is going to surpass China's by 2022, as per these estimates.

As the globe continues to inch closer to 10 billion people, some countries will top the list - India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the USA, Uganda, and Indonesia will contribute to the most population growth from now until 2050.

The global scenario: Some undeniable facts

India will likely hold that rank throughout the 21st century. Its population is 1.34 billion, nearly a fourfold increase since independence 70 years ago. China's population, at 1.41 billion, roughly doubled over the same period. The pace of India's population growth, now at 15 million per year, is the world's largest. The two nations alone have more than a billion people, and their population gap is projected to widen to 500 million by 2100. By comparison, the third and fourth most populous countries in 2100, Nigeria and the United States, are projected to have population of nearly 800 million and 450 million, respectively.

The UN estimates a population of nearly 9.8 bn by 2050 – 30 per cent higher than it is today. It also projects a possible population of 11 bn by then, at which rate our numbers could reach 16 billion by 2100.

The FAO forecast that we will need 70 per cent more food by 2050. Due to population growth, availability of land per person in developing countries is expected to halve by 2050. Globally, we'll use 71 per cent more resources each by 2050, as per I R P assessment.

What is more, a matter of concern is the fact that more than 4 bn people will live in regions short of water by 2050. IEA's forecast is that the global demand for energy will increase by 30 per cent by 2040. Brooking Institution is prompt enough to opine that a global 'middle class' of 3.2 billion people consuming at a high level in 2016 is expected to rise to roughly 5 billion by 2030!

Cities in crisis

The world population skyrocketed seven-fold over the last 200 years. For the first time in history, a majority of the world's six billion people are living in cities. Between 2000 and 2025, the world's urban population will double.

We are also not doing particularly well when it comes to accommodating the growing numbers. The rapid population growth has led to an acute shortage of dwelling units which resulted to; overcrowding, traffic congestion, pollution, housing shortages (slum and squatter housing), high rents, poor urban living conditions, low infrastructure services, poverty, unemployment, and poor sanitation which has become pervasive and indeed high crime rate.

A number of developing countries are still faced with bad road network, lack of power supply, inadequate water supply and some basic amenities. The drainage is poorly constructed leading to difficulty in accessing the roads due to the flood leading to the flood disaster in some developing countries. Additional challenges such as insufficient housing, especially particular for low – income families, are being faced, which resulted in overcrowding of already congested areas, the continuing deterioration of rundown neighborhoods, high social cost and untold personal misery.

Measures proposed to offset rising costs in public housing that include, among others, less exclusionary zoning regulations, reduced tax burdens, cooperation with the private builders, encouragement of cooperative housing organization, promotion of industrialized building techniques, use of low-cost building materials and cheaper mortgage credit, are there but the overall position remains far from being satisfactory. Flooding is another very serious problem faced in urban areas, even in capital cities of developing countries, during the rainy seasons in particular.

Tremendous pressure on the farm sector

A research by Josephson et al, argues that the rural population density (RPD) is associated with smaller farm sizes, and has a positive effect on input demand. Overall, increased input use does not lead to a corresponding increase in staple crop yields, and thus farm income declines as population density increases. Therefore, similar studies indicate that farmers in areas of high RPD may be stuck in place, unable to sustainably intensify in the face of rising RPD and declining farm sizes.

Undoubtedly, we are into a difficult stage globally and nationally in agriculture. Agricultural output will need to double by 2050 to feed a growing world. Produce more; conserve more and improve farmers' lives and that is sustainable agriculture! Given the pattern and trends in land use, time is ripe to seriously think over intensive farm practices so that the ever-increasing demand emerging from high rate of growth of food-non-food-demanders coupled with lesser and lesser supply forces get treated simultaneously. Considering the situation of burgeoning population, the farm sector is forced to go a long way before a satisfactory position is arrived at.

Fortunately, the information and opinion about food security has become increasingly rife and largely accessible. A pressing concern for our planet, food security "refers to availability of, and access to, suitable food", as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) amongst many other convenient definitions from other recognised authorities. However, the global food security status has an intimate relationship with population size. The stubborn question therefore, apart from whether the current production can keep up with the population growth, would be if we can ensure efficient distribution of our food, in a sensible way that could maximize the use of available supply.

It is better not forgotten that an economy like India still is counted to be largest reservoir of poverty in the world, with 300 million of people, as per the national poverty line definition, and well above 800 million people just surviving on less than $2 per day! South-east Asia requires immediate pep up on this score. Neglecting agriculture results in heavy immediate and future loss. The huge upcoming population in the workforce category, in turn, should better be considered as one of the rare assets that could give rich dividends exactly by the same route as China gained in the previous years.

Cut to credits, should we then remain silent spectator even knowing the trends and things likely to happen? Can we not bring down the damage more rapidly with a positive outlook backed by global cooperation reminding everyone the ongoing fact and circumstances in as much as climate change is happening 170 times faster than it would do without human activity; based on today's average global emission rates, population growth until 2050 will produce the same additional CO2 emissions as four additional USAs.

Cut to credits, some of the latest thinking on this score may be helping the economies to frame realistic policies, especially the developing block: a little less makes a lot of difference; we can bring birth rates down; one less rich person helps slows the warming of the planet; choosing a smaller family is the most effective way of cutting your carbon emissions; smaller families help countries escape poverty; family planning is a great investment of overseas aid; smaller families save lives.